Excellent commentary. I am often fascinated by the inflation/deflation tug of war played out in the bond market. Any suggestions as to how to understand this better?
A quick update. I haven't trade since early this morning-I'm barely even watching. Sold 5 ZB at 111.27 and 1@ 111.23 B 1 E6 (EUR) at 135.63 which get's me flat. S 1 CTN at 48.80 (long 2) Grains remain the same. I should pull the plug on some of the Corn but in all honestly I'm kind of shell shocked.
Thanks for your commentary; here are other contributions... http://www.healthsentinel.com/org_n...les+%96+Credit&event=org_news_print_list_item
I'm in better shape than 12 hours ago but wtf. The good part is I had a great scalp over night in ZB. I went from short 8 lots to long 2 after 10 buys at 111.21. I then put the 10 back out at 111.27 so I'm still short 8 with a much better basis. The bad part is not only did I take a nice hit on those 15 CN 4.10 calls I sold y-day but I neglected to do as planned and buy back my short bean calls. Costly error in judgement. I'm a bit too complacent with my grain trading. Unlike the indices these things gap like no tomorrow and gap n' fill ain't the usual MO.
Even if the CPI came out relatively benign, your short is still quite good! Maybe they're thinking about the weak TICS...
Tics or TIP's, lol? I sold another 2 Bonds at 111.09 Yes I am the man. I didn't trade yesterday and since I was quasi-depressed I didn't feel the need to pipe in here. In Corn I scalped like mad from the long side this morning and made 6k. I sort of took the attitude that if Corn broke again I'd quit on grains and just stay with Bonds. Of course these Bond profits gave me a cushion to get bigger in Corn. I'm inconsolable over those short Bean calls. I've capped my bean profits quite a bit prematurely. But on the other hand if I wasn't short those calls I probably wouldn't have gotten aggressive in Corn today so it all washes out. I also added 2 CT bringing my total to 4. I may try to sneak out at a scratch or sell OTM calls against them. I'll post prices and positions later as I have my platform shut down. I didn't trust myself into the close, lol.
S 2 more ZB at 110.31. Short 12 of 'em. Still long 4 Cotton and 10 covered calls in Corn. My beans are kind of non-existent as they'll be called away from me unless something dramatic happens.
Just thinking about how I f***ed myself out of 20k in additional profits by not buying back those Bean calls. It SUCKS looking at my run and seeing 30k in Bean futures open equity cut virtually in half by those S 750 calls. There is such a fine line between glory and gory. Being in a covered call position in a runaway bull is like rolling boxcars in gammon when you're blocked on the 6. Just a fine pair of dice tumbling into the wasteland. If I'm not careful these Bean calls are going to be a depressing chapter in my life. What if Beans are on a breakout move to $11. (quite possible) What kind of DICK am I going to feel like knowing I had 50,000 bushels called away from me at seven and a half freakin' dollars. I'm a chump. Obviously when I sold these calls I would have been DELIGHTED to wind up ITM. But times change and winding up behind the curve is death. I'm making money the same way 90% of traders make money. I'm a bull in a bullish grain market and a bear in a sluggish Bond market. My trading/timing in grains SUX! My bond trading...well for 25 years I've traded Bond futs so my timing and feel are pretty ok. Bottom line: talentless trading is REWARDED by favorable market conditions. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge this is poker or backgammon is delusional...... Over the long haul it's not the play it's the bet. However on any particular trade the play is all it is. Make a stupid bet but a right play, win. Vica versa, lose.