IF. I'm too much of a coward to trade this thing... will second guess myself tomorrow, but...live to fight another day.
any fund aggressively selling vol has to have shit the bed. remember they play with real money, not the paper stuff you guys fluff.
From 1952 to present - a crossing in Q1 of the December low has lead to an average 10.6% decline on average from the point where the Dec low is crossed. There are only2 times this did not happen. Looks like the rodeo is back in town. We are now below the Dec low. S&P500 Monthly bars.
I have reversed to an average position long 23290 on Dow. FWIW My AI bot has a cluster of targets around 22000 and I was all nah, no way earlier today.. Asians on very strong coffee coming online in an hour. I need some.
Its not like I have never played with real money! Unlike you I am not longing for the good old days of specialists on the floor.