Your system sounds good Congratulations . I am happy you do well with it. I associate overtrading with fatigue and emotions will vary from day to day depending with how we prepare ie; sleep exercise vice etc..others in the house and so on..alertness throughout the day. So one day overtrading might not be overtrading the next day because of focus and alertness and whether or not the first trades had an effect on you. Self examination is so difficult.
Some days setups are based on fundamentals, some days technicals, others a combination due to focus on lower timeframes. It means your setup only works under a certain set of conditions, and you don't know exactly what those conditions are. If you take all technical setups it's likely you'll have a negative P&L, if you try and fundamentally analyze them you currently don't have the reasons why. The solution, go down to lower timeframes and try and work your way back up to known setups that work and those that don't. You'll find a trend in there.
In game theory the frequency of waging bets is very important, same applies to trading. If you look at a winning day than it may seem good to keep trading - leaning on wins with size as opposed to betting more often is what many pros do why limiting their trades to 1-3 max each day. This keeps the capital from being grinded down during losing streaks while maximizing profit on winning streaks
All these discussions are useless , unless trading phsychology is included , in these discussions . We all suffer from 1)Self sabotage 2)impatience 3)greed 4)emotions /emotional hijacking /amygdala hijackings 5)stress responses reactive trades 6)informations processing delusions 7)Need to be right 8)Trading phsychosis 9)other phsychological wiring flaws related to trading. 10)acceptance of losses /loss grieving etc 11)getting smart for own good 12)Dunning Kruger effect
You don't believe in your system. There's only one thing to do - go back to the drawing board and start live trading again only when you feel you can take trades without overwhelming caution/fear.
This is bad advice. Days are not all the same, sometimes you'll profit on everything and you'll feel you can't lose. Other days you'll start losing and end up flat or in profit, then there are the fully red days. If a trader just quits trading once he has a bit of profit and does that every day, I guarantee he'll end up losing everything. You'll end up with small profits and big losses, a way to ruin.
ha,ha, You meaning me? or You meaning some imaginary trader, or You meaning you. I believe in my system, I can trade it any day or night, pre announcement, post report or holiday. But work takes it's toll on a man, and since time wise I am almost always under water why get right back under as soon as I'm flat with a profit? No harm in enjoying this life a little. Sure I may miss an entry, but there is no shortage for me of good entries. I already know my system if traded long enough will end in ruin so why rush it? Ruin is just another word for risk. What is risk if ruin is not a possibility? Low risk, low risk of ruin, high risk, high risk of ruin. btw, I never feel I can't lose. I know I can lose and will lose if I keep doing what I am doing. A simple profit withdrawal plan for profits (and I have a good one) insures when I do finally go broke I will have something sitting in SPY. Now if you want to talk about risk of ruin buying and holding SPY I'm right there with you.
Alexander elder has a free eBook on youtube. He talks about trading psychology but the slippage and commissions aren't recent. Managing losses and a cycle of behavior ..its ok and if you traded for awhile its recognizeable
I think its gonna be straight forward ...we dip we buy repeat..its gonna be close to that..no need for ruin...dollar up gold down..inflation up treasury down...dx, gc, zn..don't go into despair.. Technical bases probably have credibility going forward. Oscillating systems might not give good signals in stronger trends