over 90% win rate

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hoodooman, Oct 10, 2014.

  1. Visaria

    Visaria

    Who was this dick head?
     
    #41     Aug 20, 2018
    timdug likes this.
  2. schweiz

    schweiz

    Correct, but he is assuming just the opposite for all traders, and that is nonsense too.

    High win rates don't lead by definition to wipe outs. It all depends how the win ratio is achieved.
    How are losses managed? That is the question.

    Winning $100 for 99% of all trades and losing $1 on the other 1% is a winning trader because of having a high win rate.
     
    #42     Aug 20, 2018
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    better get out of these debate.
    winning debate can't help me earn a single cent.
     
    #43     Aug 20, 2018
    Mysteron likes this.
  4. schweiz

    schweiz

    Why did you get in then?

    Besides of winning rate you also need average profit per winning trade and average loss per losing trade.

    People who have a high winning rate are in general traders that manage their risk well (disciplined). They also can afford better to take a loss then a trader that already loses over 50% of his trades.

    So the risk of a wipe out for these traders is probably lower then for the low winning rate traders.
    Low or high winning rate has no 1:1 link with wipe outs. Everybody can wipe out.
     
    #44     Aug 20, 2018
  5. TraderEX

    TraderEX

    Appreciate your response. Any hard facts, studies or articles you could point me towards?
     
    #45     Aug 20, 2018
  6. GotherL

    GotherL

    90% winrate would only mean your winners are so small it would hardly cover the commissions & losers.
     
    #46     Aug 20, 2018
  7. maxinger

    maxinger

    After trading for so many decades, you will know what to believe what not to believe.
    you will know who BS and who are fakers.

    The other point is the definition of success rate.
    Mostly, people (especially those forex maket makers ) adjust the formula till success rate looks super high.
     
    #47     Aug 20, 2018
  8. schweiz

    schweiz

    Any hard facts, studies or articles you could point me towards?
    Or can you explain maybe why this mathematically is so?

    Commissions are so small, less then 30% of 1 tick in the ES, that even making the smallest profit possible (= 1 tick) will leave you with at least 70% profit of the sell minus the buy.
    My average profit is for the last 3 weeks 7.83 points and my average loss is 2 points, net after commission and slippage. So exactlty the contrary of what you say.

    You wrote this: So I bought a monthly plan then lost all my money in just about 5 days. So there is 26 days left and they no longer allow me to freeze my account. What am I do with this? Can I lend my account to someone else for a price or is that against the rules? This would suck to just let 26 days run by which I paid $120 for.

    I think you are not really the best source to be believed. Still at the stage of trying to find an edge and even willing to pay for it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2018
    #48     Aug 20, 2018
  9. schweiz

    schweiz

    Conclusion:no hard facts, studies or articles you could point me towards. Just personal experience and opinion.
     
    #49     Aug 20, 2018
    TraderEX likes this.
  10. SteveH

    SteveH

    Any system maintaining higher than 70% winners will have to take on upside-down risk.

    Upside-down risk is the road to trading ruin.
     
    #50     Aug 21, 2018
    birdman and comagnum like this.