over 90% win rate

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hoodooman, Oct 10, 2014.

  1. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    Winrates based on less than 500 trades are essentially meaningless. How many trades is your 90% based on?
     
    #11     Oct 10, 2014
  2. copa8

    copa8

    That's too high for me. Looking for a strategy with under 90% win rate.
     
    #12     Oct 10, 2014
    d08 likes this.
  3. I wouldn't even give 500 much credit. It's not the trade count that matters, more than th time period. A scalper could make 500 trades in a month, week, or possibly a day. That time period is not enough at all to evaluate a system. You want results from different economic time periods. If somebody has been 90% for 2-3 years, then that's impressive. But 90% in a few weeks or months is nothing worth evaluating.
     
    #13     Oct 11, 2014
  4. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    But seriously anyone got a or a 84.2% profitable method? Would pay top dollar for that be awesome.

    Firstly of like to say don't look in my journal. Thanks.
     
    #14     Oct 11, 2014
  5. Thanks for the replies. Regards to you all.
     
    #15     Oct 11, 2014
  6. Sergio77

    Sergio77

    But 25% win rate opens you to large drawdowns, many consecutive losers, etc. Not a good idea.
     
    #16     Oct 11, 2014
  7. JH: 100% Win-rate, with 3x ATR profit.
     
    #17     Oct 11, 2014
    lucysparabola likes this.
  8. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    Ridiculous. You talk like timeframe doesn't matter but it does. You don't need 2-3 years to get a significant sample size with 5-minute data.
     
    #18     Oct 11, 2014
  9. dom993

    dom993

    I have one of these, although currently in prototype form.

    Not sure I like it though ... the average loss being 2.5 x the average win, it doesn't take long to get into a significant DD, and then, it can take a long time to get out of it.

    CLZ1_v00.Performance.png
     
    #19     Oct 11, 2014
  10. d08

    d08

    You definitely need at least few years of data, for different market conditions. Would you seriously consider something with 2000 trades on 5min over 6 months? For me, that's insignificant. Having 500 trades on 5min over 3 years is much more meaningful.

    However, a high win rate (80%+) simply means the drawdowns are on their way.
     
    #20     Oct 11, 2014