sa, you're a muppet sir ... or should I say a simple parrot. When would you learn to add some added value - that is analytical commentary to you sir, instead of collecting and diseminating the same horror stories written by some other muppets? No wonder your whole wonder economic miracle is down in tatters. Repeat after me - ADDED VALUE ... keep going and it should eventually sink in you!
I hate to step into this but......SA, you are the most bitter Brasilian I know of, and I know about 200 Brasilians from different walks of life. Now we are short but light EUR/USD this morning at 1.3220, we closed 1/2 at 1.3110, and left 1/2 on as a runner. Could you explain to me why the dollar is gaining against the EURO??? And now a brief musical interlude dedicated to the coming worldwide all encompassing Plauge, Death and Destructive Depression. The preacher man says itâs the end of time And the Mississippi River sheâs a goinâ dry The interest is up and the Stock Markets down And you only get mugged If you go down town I live back in the woods, you see A woman and the kids, and the dogs and me I got a shotgun rifle and a 4-wheel drive And a country boy can survive Country folks can survive I can plow a field all day long I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too Ainât too many things these ole boys canât do We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine And a country boy can survive Country folks can survive Because you canât starve us out And you cant makes us run Cause one-of- âem old boys raisin ole shotgun And we say grace and we say Maâam And if you ainât into that we donât give a damn We came from the West Virginia coalmines And the Rocky Mountains and the and the western skies And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line And a country boy can survive Country folks can survive I had a good friend in New York City He never called me by my name, just hillbilly My grandpa taught me how to live off the land And his taught him to be a businessman He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights And Iâd send him some homemade wine But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife For 43 dollars my friend lost his life Id love to spit some beechnut in that dudes eyes And shoot him with my old 45 Cause a country boy can survive Country folks can survive Cause you canât starve us out and you canât make us run Cause one-of- âem old boys raisin ole shotgun And we say grace and we say Maâam And if you ainât into that we donât give a damn Weâre from North California and south Alabam And little towns all around this land And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line And a country boy can survive Country folks can survive edit: 3100 psyc support and we are retracing as I speak The Ever Country Boy VIPER
Amen. But country boys have the noose of the grid all over them as well. Plan logistics longer than a month when everyone wants a piece of what you have saved.....good luck.
. October 22, 2008 SouthAmerica: Here is what I just posted on The Charlie Rose Show comments section regarding his interview of Henry Paulson on last nightâs show. *** October 22, 2008 Charlie, your friend Henry Paulson has been a big disappointment to all of us as the US Treasury Secretary, and basically he is Pathetic. All they have been doing is overreact after the situation was getting out of hand. They just have been putting out one fire after another and nothing else. The entire program last night was about damage control. When you asked him about how they decided to invest money in the major banks â the reason he did not answer you immediately is because Gordon Brown in England took the leadership away from the United States and he started implementing policies in Europe that the United States just had to go along and do something similar, such as nationalizing the major banks in the United States. For all practical purposes the American type of capitalism today you can consider it as dead as the old communism of the Soviet Union. The entire world understands that and only Americans still have illusions that their capitalism system has not been damaged beyond repair. The Argentina economy bankruptcy around 2002 became the symbol of if a country adopts the economic policies prescribed by the United States of privatization and cut throat capitalism then your country end up in a total financial meltdown. Now the US economy reconfirmed that same outcome, and the US government had to nationalize many areas of its economy to prevent it from a total meltdown. And the nationalization process is not done as yet, since the US government will be forced to nationalize many more companies including: today is the money market mutual funds and tomorrow would be the automobile industry, and possibly the airlines. And just God knows what else. Henry Paulson is so delusional and so lost right now that the poor guy thinks that he is going to change the mind of the rest of the world about the demise of the capitalist system in the United States. We already can see immediate reactions taking place such as in Argentina where yesterday the president of that country nationalized the private pension system of that country. When Henry Paulson started talking about how he is setting up for his replacement for a smooth transition that reminds me of the article published last Sunday by The New York Times â Washington Sachs â an article doing a complete expose of how Goldman Sachs took over the US Treasury with its Network of Goldman Sachs alumnus. Another article published by The New York Times on October 21, 2008 - This Bailout Does not Pay Dividends â by 2 Harvard University economics professors â they refer to Henry Paulson in that article as the Godfather â like in the Mafia. The article on the NYT talks about how a chunk of this investment by the US government in the major banks is going to end up as dividends to shareholders of these banks. I understand that Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke and others are doing their best regarding damage control right now. Paulson was talking about how the banking system has started lending to one another now that the US government is giving US government guarantees to everything in sight. The only problem is that the banking system is going to be hit with a massive amount of losses that are in the pipeline and probably will put a lot of banks out of business. Even some of the largest banks in the United States because of the derivatives losses that are all over the place. It is obvious that no one can trust what is going on right now here in the US because they are not being honest and are not putting the spotlight in the massive amount of losses that are under way and will decimate companies earning and translate in massive banking losses. In Brazil the companies are being more transparent and they have been announcing massive losses related to derivatives such as Sadia, a food processor, Aracruz, a paper and pulp producer, and Votorantim, an industrial conglomerate, have announced heavy losses. Votorantim reported close to $ 1 billion dollars in derivative losses, and Sadia reported $ 410 million dollars in losses related to derivatives and Lehman Brothers. An article published by the Financial Times â UK, on October 21, 2008 regarding the current losses being reported by Brazilian companies said: âThe government fears that as many as 250 other companies may be in similar difficulties.â The Brazilian companies and the Brazilian government are being honest and they are absorbing the losses, and they are trying to fix the entire financial system in Brazil. If the Brazilian economy has more than 250 companies that are in similar difficulties such as Sadia, and Votorantim, and in a financial market 100 times more conservative than the United States, then just imagine the humongous amount of losses that are going to affect the earnings of American companies when they start reporting these massive losses related to the derivatives market nuclear explosion that is underway. The only banks that are going to continue lending at this time before all the companies come out clean and report these massive losses related to the derivatives market are the ones that are badly managed and probably the banks that will end up out of business. Only fools would trust the environment that we have today in the financial markets in the United States, and the US stock market should continue to go down until the system got ride off all these massive losses that are coming. What is amazing to me is that some very smart people have not grasped that the actual adjusted GDP of the US economy today is closer to US$ 10 trillion dollars and not the wishful thinking number that they dream up every month in Washington D.C. of around US$ 14 trillion dollars. The actual U.S. GDP is about 40 percent lower than the figure that most people use on their calculations, and when people are making plans based on a mirage no wonder the outcome of their projects end up nowhere. The US has become the world of illusion, with the US government reporting worthless information on a regular basis about unemployment and the U.S. GDP statistics. .
. October 23, 2008 SouthAmerica: Real Estate Prices should decline at least another 20 to 30 percent from current levels in the next 2 years, and that will translate into over 20 million people with a mortgage where the homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. That would be about 38 percent of people with a mortgage. Fast rising unemployment will help to fuel the number of foreclosures and help on the decline of real estate prices as people put their homes on the market because they canât afford their mortgages. As the unemployment goes up and the US government puts more pressure on illegal immigrants then hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants are going to continue their exodus from the United States resulting in a further downward pressure on real estate prices. I have no idea where it is the bottom of this real estate downward spiral. ***** Foreclosure filings surge 71 percent in third quarter as mortgage crisis worsens By the end of the year, RealtyTrac expects more than a million bank-owned properties to have piled up on the market, representing around a third of all properties for sale in the U.S. Still, that's not likely to be enough to save homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Nearly 12 million of the 52 million Americans with a mortgage -- that's 23 percent of them -- are in that position, according to Moody's Economy.com. Source: RealtyTrac Inc.: http://www.realtytrac.com .
. October 24, 2008 SouthAmerica: Letâs say that in the next 2 years with the official US government unemployment rate exploding to 10 percent or even higher. With Real estate prices declining another 20 to 30 percent and the number of new foreclosures are going to explode even with the new US government programs that might be underway. A total of 2,203,295 foreclosure filings were reported in 2007, and in 2008 with the real estate crisis snowballing the new high volume of foreclosures are becoming even worse. In early February of 2008 Moodyâs Economy.com Chief Economist Mark Zandi testified before Congress that 2.0 million homeowners will lose their homes in the next two years. That was before the financial crisis reached the current levels. In February 2008 many economists still thinking that the US economy was going to avoid a recession, and the unemployment forecasts still estimated at around 6 percent. Since that time the US economy has been in free fall, and the latest economic forecasts call for a very deep recession. Today under the new economic circumstances it is possible that 4 million homeowners are going to lose their homes in the next two years. ***** âU.S. Foreclosures Up 71% in Third Quarterâ By Alan Zibel - AP Business Writer October 23, 2008 - ⦠Nationwide, nearly 766,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice from July through September, up 71 percent from a year earlier, said foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc. One Million Bank-Owned Properties By the end of the year, RealtyTrac expects more than a million bank-owned properties to have piled up on the market, representing around a third of all properties for sale in the U.S. ******* Real U.S. Unemployment Rate 19 Percent October 14, 2008 SouthAmerica: Let me review one more time why the financial markets should be bullish about the US economy in 2009, in 2010 and even beyond. 1) The unemployment rate should rise in the United States from 6 to 9 or 10 percent and the number of people unemployed should increase from 9.5 million to 14 million people. 2) Real estate prices should continue to fall at least another 20 or 30 percent making the real estate crisis even more critical. 3) Major companies consolidation, and reorganization in the US. 4) Major budget crisis in most states in the USA â cutting new projects, and reduction in jobs at all levels federal, state, and local. 5) Massive losses to be reported from all kinds of companies in the private sector related to financial losses. (derivatives, lost collaterals and so on.) 6) Major belt tightening by US consumer with major impact in GDP. 7) Wave of banking, financial companies, and other types of companies filling for bankruptcy. 8) To get some of its credibility back the 3 major US financial credit rating agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch Ratings â after a complete review of the balance sheet of the US government and taking in consideration all the new obligations assumed by the US government during 2008 â they all arrived to the same conclusion and they changed the credit rating of the US government to a more realistic status of: Toxic Financial Rating of US government = Junk 9) After people from around the world realized the wrecked estate of the US economy then the smart money started dumping their US dollars assets in an effort to out run the herd and the stampede. 10) The US economy is descending into a deep recession and some economists are estimating that the current official US unemployment rate will increase from September 2008 unemployment rate of 6.1 percent, by the end of 2008 we should have at least a 7 percent unemployment rate, and an estimated 9 percent unemployment rate for 2009. At an official unemployment rate of 9 percent that means the number of unemployed persons will be 14 million people. If the unemployment rate decline even further to an official 10 percent unemployment rate then 15.6 million people would be unemployed. The US economy is going through a period of complete turmoil, and in the next few months we are going to have massive businesses consolidation, in the auto industry, airline industry, in the US banking and financial system, in the real estate industry, and this major consolidation and reorganizations are also to affect government jobs of all kinds. Remember there are a lot of problems related to financial losses for all kinds of businesses and financial institutions that are already in the pipeline and will put a lot of people out of business. During the year of 2007 about 1.3 million illegal immigrants left the United States to return to their countries, in 2008 the pace of illegal immigrants leaving the country is increasing because of the deteriorating economic situation in the United States and the increased enforcement of the law that is a major incentive for illegal immigrants to leave the country. In 2008 probably another 1.5 illegal immigrants are going back to where they came from. Last week a Congressman from California said during an interview by CNN News that on his district there were 10,000 foreclosed houses from illegal immigrants. You can bet that a large number of these foreclosed houses used to belong to illegal immigrants that decided to return home, and I would not be surprised if many of these people also left behind thousands of US dollars in unpaid credit-card debt. In 2009 you can bet that this exodus of illegal immigrants is going to continue since the unemployment rate is supposed to explode here in the United States. And we can estimate very conservatively that another 1.5 million illegal immigrants are going to leave the United States. This reversal trend of illegal immigration is going to have a big impact on the US economy. Instead of having the usual 500,000 new illegal immigrant arrivals into the US economy, we are having an exodus of people leaving the country. By the end of 2009 just on this are of illegal immigrants the US economy is going to suffer a negative impact of almost 6 million people on its GDP. 11) You should also take in consideration that the real GDP of the United States it is closer to $ 9 trillion dollars after you adjust it for all the garbage that is included on that figure instead of the Fairy Tale figure of $ 14.5 trillion dollars. Maybe the way to make some money in the US stock market in the near future might be by shorting the stocks, and after all things are considered testing the Dow Jones 6,000 or 7,000 level may not be a bad idea. ***** I have been writing for years about the real unemployment rate in the United States including in the Elite Trader economics forum as follows: The real Unemployment rate in the United States http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ighlight=the+US+unemployment+rate#post1736415 Years ago I wrote an article published on Brazzil Magazine on October 1, 2003 âHow to Reduce Unemploymentâ by Ricardo C. Amaral http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/20-october-2003/1073.html I donât know what happened to the rest of that article since the portion that still published on that webpage it is just 1/3 of the original article. I need to find out where the editor of Brazzil magazine published the other part of this article. Quoting from that article: ââ¦The Easy Fix To improve the unemployment rate in Brazil overnight, the Brazilian government should adopt the same system of counting the unemployed as the system being used by the United States government today. It is a simple method of counting the unemployed, massaging the figures and various modern techniques, such as: "Lying, Deception, and Misinformation." ***** October 3, 2008 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 159,000 in September, and the unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent. The unemployment rate (6.1 percent) was unchanged in September. The number of unemployed persons was little changed at 9.5 million. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 2.2 million and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.4 percentage points. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm ***** October 14, 2008 SouthAmerica: Anyway, I was just doing research on the web to find out the latest information regarding the official unemployment rate in the United States when I came across this research paper prepared by the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington D.C. which was published in June 2007 â âIs the âRealâ Unemployment Rate in the United States 15 Percent? This research paper confirms what I have been writing about the US unemployment rate for years. And we arrived to a similar conclusion about the real unemployment rate in the United States. We both agree that the real unemployment rate in the United States is around 15 percent and if the unemployment increases even further by another 4 percent which is a real possibility in 2009, then the real unemployment rate in the United States would be approaching the Great Depression level, and by the end of 2009 we should be approaching the 19 percent unemployment rate level then over 30 million people would be official unemployed in the United States. Just imagine what another 5 million unemployed people, and another 1.5 illegal immigrants leaving the country can do to push real estate prices even lower in the United States in 2009 and making the real estate crisis even more critical than today. .
. Kiwi trader: You are a pompous long-winded twat. But enough facts. How screwed up is your precious Brazil now? ********** October 24, 2008 SouthAmerica: First you guys laughed about my predictions. Then after they came to past. Now people like you call me a pompous long-winded twat. You guys canât figure out anything by yourselves, but when someone such as myself comes along and connect the dots for you â then you still canât understand and act like little kids. I sound arrogant because I am sick and tired of people like you. I have been warning you people that the crash was underway and I have been writing about all the reasons why this is happening. What else you guys want from me? .