. âOver 75 years ago Wall Street Crashed; but today the New Crash is already underwayâ¦.â February 7, 2008 SouthAmerica: I wrote about this subject on various articles in the last few years, but as we approach very quickly the beginning of the New Great Depression it is worth to review some relevant information. This it is just a reminder to give people a chance to prepare for the coming hard times. Over seventy-five years ago, we had a market collapse in Wall Street. The market started collapsing on Black Thursday, October 24, and again on Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929. The "Great Depression" followed. Based on past history, we are away overdue for another worldwide depression. A George W. Bush election on next Tuesday will guarantee the start of the new worldwide depression. The Republicans are very good at starting a "Great Depression." You can count on them. Following I am quoting part of an article that I wrote at the end of 2002, In that article I mentioned that the USA had to start a war (any war) in an attempt to delay the start of the coming "New Great Depression." ***** I am quoting from one of my articles (the original article was 9 pages long) published in January 2003: "Getting Ready for War" â¦Few years ago many economists claimed that they had tamed the economic cycle, and that deep recessions and depressions were things of the past. When I read articles about that, I thought they were completely wrong. The truth is the world is overdue for a new economic depression. Historically we had a depression in the world once every 55 to 60 years. The last world depression was over 60 years ago. A Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff, published a study in 1926 showing that a very long-term economic cycle existed. His major premise was that capitalist economies had a pattern of long wave cycles of boom and bust. The bust cycle repeated itself approximately every 60 years. If you had read Kondratieff's paper in 1926, you would have known that an economic depression was around the corner. Kondratieff identified four distinct phases the economy goes through during each cycle: 1) Inflationary growth, 2) Stagflation, 3) Deflationary growth, and finally 4) Depression-falling prices, falling stock prices, falling profits, debt collapse. As the stock market is collapsing, a number of corporate scandals emerge such as Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Adelphia Communications, Arthur Anderson and many others. As the debt load reaches new highs in the economy, the result is a record-breaking number of personal and corporate bankruptcies, as is the case in the US today. â¦In the past, a major war was the way out of an economic depression. Maybe that solution will be used by the US one more time to restart its economy - a major war contributes to ending the depression phase, and leads the economy to the first phase of the cycle once again. The big war has to be started somewhere even in Iraq. **** I wrote the following on October 29, 2004: ⦠Many economists still are debating today about the causes of the "Great Depression." Quoting from article published on the "Financial Times of London" Oct 22, 2004: "â¦Most scholarship has focused on the broad causes, with less study of what was the most important feature to anyone living through the crash: the juddering of prices up and down, sheer confusion and risk. â¦Mainstream economists are not much closer now to understanding volatility in markets than they were 75 years ago." ⦠Usually Americans make programs for television to commemorate any minor event that people can imagine. But today is the 75 birthday of the stock market crash of 1929, and there is very little mention of that event in any program on American television. The American media are aware of the precarious situation of the entire American economic system, but nobody knows what will trigger the collapse of the house of cards. Just to be in the safe side the American media is not saying much about the stock market crash of 1929. ⦠One of the triggers of the stock market collapse of 1929 was margin call on stock purchased on credit. (In 1929 people could buy a lot of stock on credit with a small amount of cash.) Margin calls it was a major problem in the stock market crash of 1929. Today, the equivalent to margin calls in 1929 is "Derivatives." The Derivatives market today, it is estimated to be over 100 trillion US dollars. This time around, "Derivatives" will be the trigger to a massive stock market collapse. Any way, today we are away overdue for a new stock market crash, and worldwide depression. Here it is a current example of things to come; The Big Meltdown!!!!!!!!!! ⦠Here is why the coming depression is a sure bet. I like to quote some information from one of my published book as follows: (Quoting from pg. 21) "Unrealistic Expectations. There is much evidence that human expectations tend to be linear. Most of the time, most people expect current conditions to continue for the indefinite future. It is almost an unnatural act for a man to leave home with an umbrella on a sunny day. Call it optimism, faith in the future, or just reluctance to see the party end, there is a presumption that the environment is stable. This is why cities are built on floodplains and fault lines. A similar presumption makes the gambler double his bet or the farmer plant additional crops on reclaimed land the year after a good harvest. Whenever prosperity exists, it is natural for people to expect prosperity to continue. For this reason, much of the history of human society is a record of astonishment. Time and again, people have marginalized their affairs, rendering themselves increasingly crisis-prone. They have gone into debt, extending claims on resources to an extreme that could be supported only if current conditions were sustained uninterrupted into the future. Time and again these hopes have been disappointed. Whenever prosperity has seemed permanent, some apparently minute change could produce astonishingly large nonlinear shifts in the organization of human society. The failure to recognize or anticipate these nonlinear transformations has been a common characteristic of almost all societies. â¦When the dynamic and nonlinear world adjusts itself to the linear thinking used daily by governments and other institutions such as corporations, banks, insurance companies, the church, and so on, the result can be sometimes catastrophic and can translate into unemployment, inflation, monetary devaluations, market crashes, world wars, civil wars, depressions, and even chaos. â¦Change is a fact of life, yet many people don't want to think about it because they feel threatened by it. So when change comes, it takes them by surprise. By then they can only react to it, and unless they're lucky, they suffer losses." ****** The United States had a Republican president, and the Republicans had a majority in the House of Representatives, and in the Senate during the years 2001 to 2006. Here we go again history repeats itself. Just a reminder!!!!!!!!!! The United States had a Republican president, and the Republicans had a majority in the House of Representatives, and in the Senate during the years 1921 to 1930. We all know the result of the Republican policies during that period: "The Depression of the 1930's." .
. Dr.Fill: "I think that's awful. If you can't post something nice, don't post anything at all." **** SouthAmerica: Do you think that the Perfect Storm is going away just because you don't want to read about it? If you think the last Great Depression it was bad, then just wait to see what it is ahead of us. This time around the Fed will be completely powerless as we watch the US dollar going through a major meltdown in the international markets. It will be the biggest international monetary crisis that the world has ever seen. It is not if that is going to happen - the reality is: this time around it is just a matter of when the shit is going to hit the fan..... .
Dont you think that the dollar and the US economy are a closed loop. Certainly, the loop involves most corners of the planet. But as the dollar melts do you expect foreigners to sit on their hands and watch, or to continue to buy stocks and RE
Excellent Commentary....As Usual... ............................................................................................. What is very interesting in this case is that the currencies in question are fiat versus fiat... Every tick down in the dollar is getting closing to the sweet spot on the guitar with regards to the EURO, the Yen , and all other currencies to feel the same US pain... This is a very interesting shift in that although the prices are changing... the buildings with the changing price tags wake up tomorrow...the same as when they went to sleep... When trillions in credit...and actual losses ....are taken out of the valuation equation....deflation has to be endured...unless of course the same pricetags are to be maintained by dilution... Thus school is out as to whether this is mostly a singled out US event...or a somewhat even worldwide distribution... At the moment Bernanke is creating a Bill Seidman approach to the bank bailout...by forming a spread between the very short versus intermediate rates...and dilution... Thus the rest of the world will have to react to try to move toward equilibrium....much like globalization theory... Globalization looks and smells like it works ok in the short run...but most likely in the long run ..it is just a form of shifting money around ..within the same geographical boundaries.... A coca cola may cost $3 in some countries and 50 cents in others.....but coca cola is coca cola...
I was looking at a chart of the S&P against gold [basically the S&P with a gold standard... ] it's down 50% since july 2006... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui $SPX:$GOLD It's a shame that it only goes back 3 years though....
Just joshin' ya. I think we're headed into a depression unless lending institutions loosen up. Lowering rates is pushing on a wet noodle if lenders won't lend. There are a few $trillion out there waiting to be converted to lower rate entities ( eg. credit cards converted to credit lines ) but if the banks won't permit it, Bernanke can cut rates to zero and it won't make a whit of difference.
Your reasoning is wrong because as the $ falls US assets look cheaper and cheaper relative to the expenisve assets elsewhere in the world. The current Fed auctions are met with such great demand that yeilds are the lowest in a long time, that tells you that the deman is still there and the $ is still considered to be a safe haven currency. In good times and in a low $ environment US equities are a great buy, the Blue chips of the world if you will. In bad times the $ is the only safe place. Do you really think that if the US gets hit with a deperession your investment in the rupee or the yuan is going to fare any better than your $ denominated investment? Hardly, infact if the US is in a depression I wouldn't be surprised to see great political instability in both China and India along with capital flight in as much as it will be possible. As messed up as the US credit markets are it is still easier to get a corporate loan at a reasonable (currently very cheap) interest rate in the US than in any of the EM. It is easier to set up a business in the US than in any of the EM and there is still less red tape and corruption that businesses have to face in the Us than in any EM. Does the US need to take its medicine and start to behave with som fiscal restraint and shift its spending from unproductive defense sectors to more productive green energy sectors and education? Yes ofcourse but one it does it will reap the benefits of such policy shifts in a way that no other nation on earth can. In short the US has a significant edge in the global economy and it just takes the right policy makers to utilize it. People who think that it is all just going to go up in smoke in the next few years and the US will be in a depression are not looking at the big picture. The difference between now and the late '20 is that the level of gloabl economic activity is much higher as is the popultion, productivity, and technology and financial markets are far more sophisticated all of which make a depression unlikely but doesn't mean that a nasty recession isn't in the cards for the US while it digs itself out from the easy credit mess.