BRK data indicates further deterioration than what the whitehouse/ congress/fed want to admit. Rosy projections and poor strategies with no real leadership yet taking place indicates the markets will continue to deteriorate. Looking over data to be reported all of it will be worse than expected. DOW 6820 is a conservative bearish estimate, 6600 would be a less conservative estimate. Banks will continue to absorb taxpayer money without producing anything tangible for taxpayers. Obama and team are refusing to come to grips with the reality of the situation. The only solution is bank liquidation and a Resolution Trust Corp type solution. Until they come to grips expect a further chinese water torture bear market over the next 12 months.
Dow will drop below 7000 this week, would be buying in for a bounce around 6700-6800 area, still believe we go lower, my DOW target is 6500 after 7000 breaks however I do see a bounce from EXTREME oversold conditions if the markets do break 12 year lows. Aside from that I do believe the markets head lower, something below 5500 is very possible going into the second half of 2009.
I agree that this is certainly possible, I actually give it a greater chance of happening before the DOW ever gets to new highs which is years and years away, DOW sub 5000 levels are certainly possible. The bubble in all indexes over the last decade or so have been brought on by excess leverage and cheap credit, this is no longer available, I think we will see an economy moving along the way it should be moving along without pumping it up with credit and unlimited leverage. The way the economy grew over the last 2 to 3 decades could NOT have grown without that substance that pushed it to the limits. These limits have have been broken and will never work the same way as they did.
Market expects a 7.9% Unemployment to be reported next friday. I see more like 8.1 and that will spook the markets. Factory orders on thur, market expects -2.1% I expect -4.0% I believe there is a glut of excess production capacity built over the last 20 years that will sit idle.
'something below 5500 is very possible going into the second half of 2009.' Dow 5500 was my prediction few months ago and am still sticking to it. Expect a sideways markets for a while from there on. Which is the next good sector to invest, Oil and Energy again, Food stocks or nationalized banks. How about Walmart!