Out of curiosity: anyone here consistently predicts market direction?

Discussion in 'Options' started by Aquarians, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. 931

    931

    Tbh i dont have high enough quality bid&ask tickdata to do backtest with valid spreads and know exact number for 10+ years.

    Cheap dataproviders provide poor data imo. If
    algos find strange oppertunities i know data is shit.
    And my algos determine poor data very well.

    Fighting agains poor data with manually coded validity filters is hopeless too imo.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2020
    #31     Jul 26, 2020
  2. guru

    guru


    No, mostly trading volatility, IV smile, imperfect option pricing in general, etc. Long topic.
     
    #32     Jul 26, 2020
    BlueWaterSailor and Atikon like this.
  3. On scalps, I have an 80% win rate consistently.
     
    #33     Jul 26, 2020
  4. 931

    931

    Yes i ment volatility.

    Basically you seek for potential instead of directon?

    Do you think it would be viable idea for forex and stocks instead of options as well?
     
    #34     Jul 26, 2020
  5. guru

    guru


    I trade stock and index options, which may also work on Forex and futures options (plan to work on this).
    As for trading stocks and forex directly, not exactly, but a similar approach may be the
    Modern Portfolio Theory where you create a weighted mix of instruments to achieve best profitability-to-volatility ratio (Sharpe), and you rebalance your positions periodically. Some funds that focus on variants of this approach claim to beat S&P 500, but I’m not sure that you could get results worth describing as “trading” vs “investing”.
     
    #35     Jul 26, 2020
  6. JSOP

    JSOP

    Define "Consistently".
     
    #36     Jul 26, 2020
  7. taowave

    taowave

    are you in the "business" of making money,or in the likelihood of making money "business"?


     
    #37     Jul 26, 2020
    VolSkewTrader likes this.

  8. 1. "...has to move the right way" Huh? o_O

    2. And your definition of fast is.... "Accelerate fast enough with terminal exit velocity" would have sounded cooler.

    3. Many of us have made plenty of money on OTM calls before they go ITM. They simply just need to go up in value.

    And many of us have lost money covering short OTM puts before they expired.

    "...selling puts clearly puts the odds in your favor." You're not serious, are you? :wtf:

    I think you need some tutoring on basic options theory and practice. Everything you said makes zero sense or is only partially true.
     
    #38     Jul 26, 2020
    DTB2, BlueWaterSailor, Atikon and 2 others like this.
  9. Tradex

    Tradex

    Don't worry, you will get it one day.

    Those still new to options trading need to understand than they can lose money on their call options even if the stock (or other financial instruments) moves in their favor.

    So the stock has to move your way AND move quickly enough to overcome the time decay.

    Right, piece of cake.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2020
    #39     Jul 26, 2020
  10. Thor

    Thor

    Why to guess ?
    Wait till a trend starts.
     
    #40     Jul 27, 2020
    Tradex likes this.