OSX slow bleed

Discussion in 'Trading' started by silk, Sep 22, 2002.

  1. silk


    These stocks have been very tough to trade from long side for weeks. Countless days i've been tricked to buying in because of the price of crude oil or natural gas going up. These stocks don't care. It used to be i could count on these stocks to go up when the commodity was strong. But the last few months this has changed.

    These were great traders from Nov to May. It seems that the wall street analysts have pulled the plug on the sector.

    Take a look at RIG chart. That is a disaster. The SLB PE never made since, so i wouldn't be suprised to see that one fall to $30 in this new market condition where we find few stocks with PE's over 25.

    SLB at $30 would likely put the OSX at 60.
  2. tampa


    Maybe you should put more effort in learning how to trade, and less in to guessing and rationalizing.
  3. silk


    If the tape looks like crap it doesn't matter if the price of crude is $1000/barrel, you won't make money going long.
    Good advice to not try to rationalize.

    Don't make big bets based on rationalization without tape confirmation. Perhaps take a small position based on rationalization, then size up if relative strength emerges.

    It seems to always come back to add to your winners, cut your losers. The market is always right at 4:00 when you must close your positions.
  4. rig has been a dog for some time. I'm sorry for stating the obvious, but they don't always follow crude. When there is saber-rattling in the mideast, then they often are accumulated, but it's not a direct-drive relationship all the time.

    You'll notice, too, that they are very sensitive to economic outlook (at least of late); the supply/demand picture is apparently very well balanced.

    if you want to learn more about the fundamentals that drive the group, check out simmons research http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/ -- arguably THE experts.
  5. silk


    I just did a search of your previous posts. All of them was bashing of other members. You sound like a very Angry person. What is wrong?
  6. silk


    You are right i think. The price of the commodity is taking a distant backseat to the weak economy and the unwillingness of the big oil companies to not make any overly aggressive exploration plans in this uncertain time.
  7. joeystox

    joeystox Guest

    tampa sounds very hostile and argumentative... hardly the traits of a successful trader.. so silk, let him wallow in his own misery as we trade happily along with the flow........:) :) :) :)
  8. tampa


    You just do that, joey...
  9. o silk, another thing. This week's Barron's has an interesting chart showing domestic core crude stocks being relatively low.
  10. We like to trade OIH, which is the OSX HOLDRS ETF. It is diversified among 17 different OSX stocks, and can really move when the sector is in play. Ever trade it?
    #10     Sep 23, 2002