my thoughts To assemble a disparate whole, to see an objective picture of the present and the real prospects of the future in the computer age is just a matter of time. Dow Theory is the oldest and most well-known method of determining the main trends in the stock market. The purpose of the Dow theory is to identify changes in the primary or main market fluctuations. Charles Dow never wrote a theoretical study. He set forth his ideas about stock market behavior in the Wall Street Journal series of editorials that were published in the late 1890s. Later, his articles took on a more organized and complete look in the book of Robert Ria “Dow Theory” (Dow Theory, Robert Rhea) - 1932. Key points of the Dow Jones theory: 1. Indexes take into account everything. Any factor capable of influencing supply or demand in one way or another will invariably be reflected in the dynamics of the index. 2. Dow identified three categories of price trends: primary secondary small. He attached the greatest importance to the primary trend, which lasts more than a year, and sometimes several years. The secondary tendency was corrective in relation to the main tendency and usually lasts from three weeks to three months. Similar intermediate corrections make up one to two thirds (very often half, or 50%) of the distance covered by the price during the previous trend. Small trends last no more than three weeks and are short-term fluctuations within the secondary trend. 3. The main trend has three phases. The accumulation phase when the most far-sighted investors start buying, since all the unfavorable economic information has already been taken into account by the market. The second phase begins when those who use technical methods to follow trends join in the game. The final phase, when the general public enters into action, and the hype begins on the market, fueled by the media. 4. Indexes must confirm each other. Dow had in mind industrial and railway indices. He believed that any important signal to increase or decrease in the market rate should be reflected in the values of both indices. Of course, the signals should not absolutely coincide with each other, but the less they are separated by time, the more reliable 5. The volume of trade should confirm the nature of the trend. The Dow did not consider trading volume to be paramount, but, nevertheless, an extremely important factor for confirming signals received on price charts. The only drawback of this theory is that; - describing the direction of the trend, its development, the Dow does not predict its duration and volatility. The identified trend exists until a pivot point is found which is confirmed, including in both indices. Considering the progress of the current trend, Dow Jones did not see the prospects for the subsequent development of the general market trend, he did not realize in what phase of the market condition the segment he considered was located. In fact, having ripped out the price fragment from the whole picture, he went deep into the detail of this fragment. The second significant maestro of technical analysis is, without a doubt, Harold Gartley. One fact that for his book, at the height of the Great Depression, many traders were ready to pay an amount commensurate with the cost of three brand new Ford cars, says a lot about his talent. “Profits in the Stock Market” - 1935. It was a textbook on trading on the stock exchange, which outlined various approaches to technical analysis, in particular the so-called “Gartley Patterns”. In different sources, they are called either “Gartley Butterfly” or “Gartley 222.” After the death of Gartley himself, his follower Larry Pesavento reprinted the book adding his own work there, where, in particular, he suggested applying Fibonacci relationships to Gartley harmonic patterns to increase their accuracy . It was thanks to Harold Gartley and Larry Pesavento that the opportunity arose not only to “find” the optimal pivot points of current price trends, but also to visualize the price movement giving it the appearance of harmonious patterns. And again, the same miscalculation, Gartley focuses on the fragments of the construction, Thoroughly analyzing the work of individual patterns, he loses the general picture of the instrument he is considering, the combined work of all the intermediate patterns in building a common price model. Having left behind the preceding already built-up pattern, he does not see the real goal of exactly where the price will go globally. Which way she will go there. Will it be a new pattern or will it be a pullback from the pattern that the price is building in the present. But most importantly, considering the individual work of the patterns, he determines their work in one time interval. In fact, the market is more diverse and what seems to us to be the work of the current pattern can in fact be just a hoax of the imagination and we will understand and analyze this in more detail in the chapter “Working the pattern in the pattern”. Based on the work of these very masters of technical analysis, all sorts of subsequent graphical versions of the TA developed. But neither the Dow Jones nor Harold Gartley really considered the development of the price movement precisely in the combination of model-time-volatility. The only one who paid great attention to this issue was William Gann. His first publication, “Supplyand Demand Letter,” was recognized in many countries around the world and was named the best book on the financial market. The next book, Tunnel Thru the Air, has become one of the most controversial, mysterious, and famous in the world. Many people today are trying to discover the secrets of this amazing publication. In 1954, his rate was sold for $ 5,000. At that time, you could buy a house for the money. The main principle of the Gunn theory is the interconnectedness, balance of the Model, time and price. According to Gann's theory, changes occur cyclically, so they can be predicted. Gann's work in the market is still a delight. And all thanks to the fact that Gunn’s theory has no analogues. She is able to predict even the time of market reversals. It is in option markets that this is much more important, because it allows you to get the maximum profit. The main and, perhaps, the only drawback of the Gunn theory is its complexity for understanding. For trading operations on its system, it will be necessary to take into account many schemes - square 9, circle 24, chart 360, square 144, hexagonal chart, etc. Take into account the astrological chart - for example, square 52 In other words, it was Gann who first tried to convey to us - the market is a well-balanced, iron-regulated mechanism that lives by its own laws. The mood of the crowd, the fabulous poured cash flows are indifferent to him and any attempts to violate the rules of his game turn into a financial catastrophe for anyone who does not accept them. Trader's joke - “Where will the market go? - to the right ”, in every joke there is only a fraction of the joke, and therefore to the right, market movements form only 7 standard price constructions: Trend change 1 - current trend, trend change 2 - current trend, flat, trend change Inside trend movements а - current trend, correction, trend continuation b - current trend, flat, trend continuation s - current trend, flat, correction, trend continuation d - current trend, correction, flat, trend continuation e - current trend, flat, correction, flat, trend continuation Any other graphical constructions are impossible for the price chart. This fact is the basis of his catch phrase - “The future is just a repetition of the past ... >>. That is precisely why these only possible 5 inside the trend constructions in reality refute the opinion that the market is controlled by the crowd or large players and that the current news can even influence the medium-term local trend. The concepts introduced by Dow Jones of the main, secondary and small trends and the 3 phases of accumulation will not be complete, if you do not take into account that these trends work in 4 states of any market, whether it is the stock market, stock market, Forts market, etc. Market conditions 1) pre-crisis price situation 2) critical price situation (crisis) 3) way out of the crisis 4) stabilization And again in a circle from item 1 to item 4 And these 4 market conditions do not work for all its instruments simultaneously and equally. The actual crisis for one market segment can be just a pre-crisis state for its other segment. Therefore, the market has repeatedly experienced the 1st and 2nd wave of the crisis. In the event of a global market crisis, a 3-wave exit from the crisis is possible, but since such "crisis shocks" are fraught with real social explosions with unpredictable consequences, such a situation is possible only in theory. And local 1 wave crises are an everyday matter, and every trader experiences at least a couple of such market shocks. The main reason for the trader’s disorientation is the lack of understanding in combinations, the current market condition - the trend - the optimal intra-trend model - the main goal of the tool is the allowable volatility associated with the time of construction of intermediate and general price models. To summarize the above Our asset a) 4 components of the state of the market b) 3 stages of market trend development c) the ability to assess the situation using a synthetic index d) 2 options for changing the trend e) 5 typical inside trend price constructions f) market cycle Thanks to the history of the charts, we know the global high-low prices, therefore it is not difficult to calculate: g) acceptable target corridors of upcoming price constructions It is due to the lack of absolute market correlation that we are able to h) choose the optimal future price models for individual instruments. Our liability - Partially working Dow Jones theory and Pater TA Gartley. - very complicated application of the Gunn theory Output Take the best from Dow Jones, refine TA Gartley, greatly simplify Gann, Combine these 3- and theories into a single whole and, taking into account individual price nuances that these TA masters did not take into account, derive - a model that is consistent with the Dow Jones theory and is clearly intertwined with the patterns of Gartley, - would take into account all market constructions, would have a cyclical and stereotyped construction in accordance with Gann. - find confirmation for turning points, while simplifying TS Gunn as much as possible - As a confirmation, use the necessary synthetic indexes that you can create yourself. The overall result - Get a single price model that works in any market.
kindly requested, gentlemen, professional traders, do not go into this thread, I would not care about your opinion, I am only interested in technical analysis professionals, the rest of morons are not interesting to me
said that I do not give a damn about the news, and the more that the president will say that I trade the market movement, there are many presidents in the world, and I have neither the time nor the desire to listen to their stupidity. For example, these idiots connect the fall of oil with Trump’s statement on Twitter, the same day there was a fall in Hewlett Packard shares, and where does Trump? and thousands of such examples This is very sad, in just a week 5000 views and messages only from morons
I knew that oil would fall a month before the announcement of Trump and the main goal was $ 57 https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BCOUSD/6ZmMCeIt-brent-oil/ in the commentary said “Typical completion of the phase of price stabilization and the beginning of formation - the pre-crisis phase of the model. (Commodity market)” now this forecast is being adjusted people with whom I communicate and who works according to my forecasts - have earned a lot of money and they do not care what professional traders think like on your forum and your professional traders can only die from envy and from my profit and from how I understand the market