Well I must admit that I agree with the possibility that EurGbp is trading on stretched psychology...just look at the reaction yesterday off last week's lows...and today there was a continuation step through 7912 as you say. Also, we agree that 1.3500/20 is a key area and 8630/50 on Kiwi. So we do agree on something! It's been all about the Euro today...UK data mattered less from what I'm seeing here (proly because there was more of a actual vs. expected surprize on the euro) so we'll see.
Hey salubrity thug (love the name ), thanks, I'm glad that someone else digs "simplicity". Pull up a chair and join the conversation if you wish
Dollar bulls are back in the town... Jobless claims really really good and reaction is strong, although NZD is only resilient. I think eurgbp will have a pop above 0.7930 just to clear out some stops and that move should be fueled by gbpusd losing 1.7 So I will look to buy some USD weakness against GBP before the US econ data, but ofcourse if i get a setup I will post it, maybe I will go with 1.7007 if usd stays strong, and all the short squeezes in eurjpy
Was looking to short 1.7007, didnt get it... Now I am looking to buy 1.6955 in GU, and stronger dips is NZDUSD, exited morning longs at +20pts and maybe if 0.9420 in AU stops get triggered
btw bcs of current strength of USD before news releases I am expecting some USD bearish data or atleast neutral. Like we had the stop hunt in EURUSD below 1.3440 this morning
I still think simplicity is best... UK had some disappointing data...EurGbp bids are helping push it down..the orderflowtrading newsfeed showed this: Couple of decent shots to short this thing today: about an hour before the data this morning (so not news trading so to speak), and on the test of current week's lows/yesterday's low print.
Is there any legit news service you guys use that has everything in one place that shows the most important things for the day? Metastock Xenith(rueters eikon)?
Hey, what kind of sentiment filter you use JJay? I found this http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/
Metastock Xenith as far as I know is a top knotch service, which costs a lot less than Eikon. For my needs, the OrderFlowTrading.com free newsfeed + twitterverse + Reuters.com gives me all that I need. I think the guys at OFT have contacts at Reuters or DTCC because they post consistently reliable stop levels + option info on currencies that is usually only available through a paid service. Since trading is a business, I like to keep my fixed costs to a minimum. Paying for an expensive service isn't necessary for my day-to-day endeavours...but to each their own!
Hey Svejed1, i think you're confusing "retail sentiment" (which is basically an aggregate of what the broker's retail clients are doing) for "market sentiment". I'm not even talking about the COT index here. That's another matter altogether (which is important though). As I've said in the first post, I read "OrderFlowTrading for Fun and Profit" by Daemon Goldsmith...and I latched onto their site, orderflowtrading.com. It really helped me shift my focus from just price action trading to viewing the market for what it is: an encounter of a great number of different agendas, which create opportunities based on the aggregate perception of the future. That's sentiment in a nutshell: what the market's feeling about the future is, regarding that particular asset. So by keeping in touch with headline news releases, some bank reports, and the current themes in the market, I attempt to understand whether there is a clear focus/thought going through the pipes (like the current euro weakness and USD strength). If there is, I'll try to leg into the flows when possible, using order information and the levels I've been showing all throughout this thread. Remember that we are competing against other traders which have more experience and capital than us. So trying to overpower the more experienced players is futile. Start thinking about the other participants in the market and how you can exploit their characteristics. Markets are all about fear and greed. As price moves, some participants will start to feel pain and will have to cover at some point. Hunting stops and initiating squeezes in the market place is not just about retail traders. Professional traders also get stopped out or are forced to cover as the position moves against them. We should attempt to win against the weak hands in the market. Usually the weak hands are fading every move, treating the markets as if they were consistently in a range. Weak hands sell into demand and buy into supply (for whatever reason). And most importantly, they have no patience. You see all sorts of chatter in forums about short time frame trading...my experience is that the longer term charts offer the better opportunities and are more in sync with the general price drivers. You want to take the high prob opportunities and go with the flow (where there is one). So I ask myself: 1) What are the key themes in the market currently? 2) What are the main factors driving current sentiment on your currency/future/commodity of choice? You don't have to be an analyst and you certainly don't have to make it complicated. Follow a news feed and/or the twitterverse...Keep it short in form of notes. 3) What is price action telling you as we bump against key levels? As prices moves further, compare it to your sentiment analysis. Don't just see simple "Support/Resistance levels" ...view them as levels where orders accumulate. Think about what it means for bulls if a key support level holds. Does PA indicate decent demand or are the upmoves quickly running into further selling? What if the level breaks, where does the pain start for the bulls? This is the type of mindset that has helped me a lot. Hope it makes sense...