Discussion in 'Options' started by tmf, Mar 19, 2012.
1 day to announce, is it PUT or CALL and why?
I assume you mean should one purchase puts or calls? why not just play the vol and buy a straddle or strangle? Some nonsense report I got from Goldman Sucks said people should consider buying the 33/28 strangle for the April cycle.
If you're really looking for gamma buy the same spread with the March weeklies and experience the vol crush . It's definitely a win big or strikeout kinda trade.
Personally I'm not an earnings kinda guy BUTTTT I do believe the straddle (priced at approx $1.25 IIRC on the March weeklies) is kinda low. Lots of uncertainty regarding ORCLs earnings given what they reported last quarter. Longer term I'm long ORCL (or buying calls to use your terminology) as I believe its price is beneath its intrinsic value plus I see improving fundamentals, but I don't do the one trick binary event crap.
+1 deltahedge. yeah gs' recs are to be taken w/ a grain of salts or a lot of them. anytime i hear about a rec from gs i force myself not to listen b/c i don't want to be like their client in the pic...
You guys get their Option Weekly report?
AFAIK, a betetr play is to sell the weekly (straddle or strangle) and buy the same for the next expiry. Vol crush has a good chance of giving you an AM profit or ownership of next month's straddle/strangle at reduced cost. NKE has possibilities for tomorrow.
Yep, that's how I'd play it. Sell the ATM March4 straddle, buy the ATM April straddle (I guess you could do a calendar spread alternatively). Granted this must be put on before the earnings announcement to benefit from the vol crush, but now the event already happened.
I ended up doing the 29p/30c double strangle. Covered the 29p's yesterday for cents and sold next week's 29p's today. I should have rolled the 30c's in when ORCL was over 31 but was out to lunch.
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