Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

You are 100% correct, I have no proof.

 

Thanks again and your reply is the proof that I need to study a lot more before I even think about putting real money at risk.

 

the 135/136 has an EV of -.08 = (.24*-.84)+(.76*+.16)

so you wouldn't want to do that trade.

 

Yeah ib def more on the bid size.