I agree that short term all option trades are affected by volatility. I'm just saying that at expiration, why does it matter what your prediction about volatility was?
A lottery ticket costs $1 and might pay $150,000,000, while a share of stock costs $50 and might pay $4 over a year. The motivation for engaging in these two transactions cannot be the same. Undoubtedly there are many options traders with a lottery-like utility, but these cannot make up 95% of traders. I agree with your general point about books, seminars, and mentoring services. However, people who spend $5,000 on mentoring are a minority. Most people understand that the secret to making millions is not sold for thousands, but is sold for a multiple of its earning potential.
This is not correct because whether the spread is profitable at expiration depends on the realized volatility over the trade duration.
Typically, 4 years undergrad [no pre-med req], GMAT, 4 years med, 4 - 7 years surgical residency, fellowships... General surgical res is 5 years.
Really? So if I put on an iron condor and it stays between my short strikes at expiration and I didn't have to make any adjustments, you're saying the spread profitability depends on the volatility during the duration of the trade???
the 51/49 stats are for CURRENT players that still in the game...eventually the 49/51 trader's account will bleed to zero and a newbie will take his seat. Give it some time and a successful 51/49 trader will become better than 95% ( inc the ones that left the game for good)
I'd like to see some peer reviewed published research on this - any academics need a research project out there? Of course the CBOE isn't going to fund your research.