Hi Paladincomp, after the Jan 2008 class, when will be the next one offered? do you have openings every month or every quarter? Thanks!
The classes start each month, with the exception of December. HTH Tom Nunamaker Administrator Sheridan Options Mentoring www.sheridanmentoring.com
Hi Tom, as hlpsq mentioned, a completely newbie coming to the program wouldn't be advisable... Let's say that one would take a few months to get some basics and decides to join the program, would it be possible to say, reserve a spot for March or April of next year?
Sure. Dan is working out some kind of deal with the Options Institute at the CBOE to have the basic classes paid for as part of the mentoring program if it's needed. Fill out the contact form at www.sheridanmentoring.com and I'll contact you directly Tom
I have some very bad news to report here. I, however, stand by this statement and have more then enough trading sheets to back me up counting 100's, possibly thousands of traders. The only way you can be profitable over the long run trading options is if you can predict volatility or price better then 95% of the other market participants. End of story. There is no getting around this. This is a non debatable fact. Anyone that tells you that you can just trade condors or calendars and make money should be reported directly to the SEC. I know you don't want to hear this. Nobody does. It's kind of like telling an average slop that he will never marry a supermodel, but I think I have been in this business long enough and around enough traders to not only make this statement, but back it up with cold hard numbers. Now, there is nothing inherently wrong with trading condors or calendars. It's just that both of those trades happen to be volatility trades. If you predict volatility correctly, they will make you money. If you don't, they will not. It's that simple. There are some very very bright people in this business that spend tens of millions of dollars and hire 100's of quants to predict volatility for them and they have a very tough time making money. But wait, some newbie with no option knowledge in the world is going to just slap on some volatility trades and consistently make money? I mean think about that for a second. Just try to use some common sense here. Let's pretend we are in the medical profession, which is not even a good comparison because there are far more successful doctors in the world then traders. Do you honestly think you could perform brain surgery on a patient after a few webinars, some e-mail exchanges, a few live phone calls and a booklet? Anyone? Of course not. Even a trained surgeon with 7 years of medical school, 3 years of residency and possibly thousands of hours of surgery under his belt still has trouble and loses many patients in surgery. Yet some guy on ET is going to go through a quick course and just like that, become a surgeon. Laughable of course. But this is exactly what you believe with your options trading. Guys, you need to wake up. I have nothing to sell here or convince you of. I'm providing some cold hard reality. Yes, I run a prop office and have seen the sheets of 100's of option traders. I've been on the floor of both the CBOE and CBOT. I also have educated 100's of traders for free on the northside of Chicago for almost 4 years now. Almost all of them former optionetics students or seminar participants. None of them are profitable or ever where. I will say it again, the only way you will make money trading options is to be able to predict either direction or volatility better then 95% of all the traders out there. There is no way to get around this mathematically. Sure, due to the limited data sample many of you have, you will string together a few positive months. But in the end, you are playing with a negative expectancy. Good luck.
Why do 95% of option traders trade options? Serious question. Edit: Why must one predict volatility or direction better than 95% of options traders as opposed to 51%?
The same reason why people buy lottery tickets. The same reason people trade futures or stocks. The same reason people sign up for courses on how to buy real estate with no money down. The same reason people listen to their stock broker who has a hot stock tip. People want to "believe". That hasn't changed in thousands of years. The power of "belief" is a very strong part of the human condition. Unfortunately, it's also very easy to exploit.
Volatility helps you if it decreases after entry and hurts if it increases after you enter.. but only if you exit the trade prematurely. If you stay in until expiration, the volatility doesn't matter as all of the time premium disappears at the same time for all legs of your trade. So why would you need to predict volatility for an iron condor? A calendar sure. But not a spread with all legs expiring in the same month. If you practice good risk/money management, you should be able to make money. You also aren't predicting direction in an iron condor. Merely managing the risk imo. Lots of people use options as speculation vehicles.. and a lot of them are wrong. Many use it to hedge other positions. There are lots of ways to trade options.
Completely false. Every option trade has both a volatility and directional component embedded within. Condors are short volatility bets. Either implied vol or stat vol. There is no way around that. And yes, all iron condors have a directional position embedded within them. Your post is the epitome of where the understanding or lack there of is in option trading.