Options Math: Calculating the BreakEven spot price for multiple Short Puts

Discussion in 'Options' started by thecoder, Oct 28, 2021.

  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Don't worry about it lol, I always thought it would be better to just put out a different tip jar and hope the bartenders are honest.
     
    #31     Oct 30, 2021
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    we were typing at the same time!!!! ;)
     
    #32     Oct 30, 2021
    BlueWaterSailor likes this.
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    How's this for a head trip. I did a calculation some time ago on the saying, "See a penny, pick it up", and how cost-effective that is over time, as opposed to ignoring the penny. It works out quite well.

    Assuming it takes a person an average of two seconds to see a penny on the ground, bend down and pick it up, that comes out to $.30 per minute.

    30 cents per minute times 60 minutes = $18/hour wage. So while you are not going to get that wage in continuous income stream, it really pays to pick the penny up off the ground, because cumulatively, you are earning more than the national minimum wage by doing that.
     
    #33     Oct 30, 2021
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Learned this one from one of the most talented people I have ever met... and he came up without parents on the street from the time he was like 12.

    You'll find a ton of change every day on the pavement below a drive thru window.

    But even better than that one, you scour the parking lots of large clubs that had concerts or whatever the night before on Sunday morning right as the sun comes up. Wallets, jewelry, bags of dope,.... the cat knew how to survive.
    Lives in an ocean-side crib now btw.
     
    #34     Oct 30, 2021
    ITM_Latino likes this.
  5. Meanwhile, the guy at the stoplight has picked up some discarded newspaper and a big 7-11 cup, filled it with water and a bit of soap from the nearby public toilet, and is washing car windows at a buck or two a pop. Figuring the light changes once a minute, he's making $60-$90/hour. If it's summer, his brother - who spent $5 on a styro cooler and bought $20 worth of water bottles and ice - is selling them to those same drivers at $2 per; figuring the fixed and running costs, he's making about $1.75 per bottle, and at 2-3 bottles per stoplight, that's $210-$315/hour.

    The concept that your buddy with the pennies is missing is called opportunity cost. While you're staring at the ground, folks who aren't wasting that time kick ass. :)

    P.S. The parking lot idea is slightly better, since you're focused on a single task that can have high returns. But given that the competition is likely to slash your face with a broken wine bottle or curb-stomp your ass and give your dentist nightmares, it's probably not worth it.
     
    #35     Oct 30, 2021
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    But you are assuming here that everyone's window that is washed is a paying customer, and that those who are offered the bottle of water are buying them.

    When you encounter a squeegee guy at a stop light who aggressively washes your windows, do you pay them every time and buy water as well? Hell no! As a driver, I'm like "Get outta' my face!"

    You have the maths down, but not the reality. See a penny, pick it up, you make $18 per hour in pure cost v. effort. That's it. That is all there is.

    That is the problem with you options folks. You take a simple concept like picking up a penny, and add 14 more dimensions to it. That's why we love you and your craziness.
     
    #36     Oct 30, 2021
  7. Want to bet? I don't mind laying some serious cash on the line on who will make more per hour. I doubt you'll even find a quarter's worth - so it'll take just one customer for me to beat you.

    No, not everybody will pay - but enough will that it's definitely worth the time to someone who is, let's call it "short on life options". When I was driving a black car in NY, I knew exactly where the best ones were (West St. and Vesey or so), and patronized them. That's how I know about the newspaper trick; works better than a sponge.

    You set out the maximum possible return, so that's what I did as well. Another econ concept that passed you by... it's called ceteris paribus. Google it. :)

    That's because nothing in life is ever "simple" - especially when it involves other people. You binary guesser types should learn that.
     
    #37     Oct 30, 2021
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    I'll bet you $1 in real cash. This way the bet will have to end with us eventually meeting, because dude, I wanna party with you. For real.

    What I am saying is, picking up a penny every two seconds is a very very efficient way to make money. It is not a contiguous income stream, but over time it works considering expenditures. You have to have a black car, you need to purchase fuel. There is so much overhead.

    Walking down the street, there is no cost except the food you eat to fuel your body. See a penny, pick it up. If you consider this on an ad-hoc basis, it is very lucrative and profitable.
     
    #38     Oct 30, 2021
  9. Come on down, bro. We'll find some fun things to do... panhandling won't be one of them, but I suspect you'll survive.

    My point is that you can't - not by a long shot. There are no pennies to be picked up every two seconds - nor (and I'll make another bet on this) are you, or almost anyone else, in shape to do 30 full forward bends per minute for an hour. There's probably a monk somewhere in China who could do it, but that's about it. Focused effort - e.g., that parking lot, or running your hand through the seam in a car seat - might make some sense, but this "picking up a penny" silliness only works in an abstract, "spherical cow" sense. Forget it.
     
    #39     Oct 30, 2021
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    This is the problem with text, and my inability to express the maths.

    It is efficient in the sense of time slices. If you take 2 seconds out of anyone's workday, who is more efficient? The warehouse worker doing A and earning nothing, or the penny guy collecting cash?

    Sorry, I cannot explain my idea in writing. Oy!

    I need to go to bed. Niters man. :-\

    P.S. And by the way, in the other thread, I could not find a place to post it, well, you laid the foundation for it. Quint, in his final glory. :) Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller = Quint and sharks?

     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2021
    #40     Oct 30, 2021