"Options market pricing in a X% move on the stock"

Discussion in 'Options' started by a529612, Jan 24, 2007.

  1. arturo3

    arturo3

    I am not sure I inderstand your question. The Put-Call ratio on a given underlying corresponds exactly to the ratio between the volume of short and long positions.
    However, you can get a more precise information on that underlying by looking at the open interest at a specific strike price.
     
    #41     Feb 12, 2007
  2. Prevail

    Prevail Guest

    an increase open interest for calls could be initiated by buyers or sellers.

     
    #42     Feb 12, 2007
  3. Take this hypothetical example

    Say that a stock is at $21.25. A hedge fund has some inside info, that a bad announcment is coming out that the public does not know, and the stock is expected to drop a $1.25 to $20.00

    Say the $20.00 call is trading at $1.75 and
    Say the $22.50 put is also trading at $1.75

    Both strikes are equidistant from the current stock price.

    If you bought the $22.50 put, and the stock is at $20.00 at expiration, you make $.75

    If you sold the $20 call and the stock was at $20.00 at expiration, you'd make $1.75

    The difference between the two is that you SOLD time value, instead of buying it.

    So we already know the fund is bearish, and they KNOW the stock will go to $20. It is in their best interest to sell the $20 call, which makes the open interest on the $20 increase.

    Because the open interest of the $20 calls increases, it does not mean that the person buying/selling is bullish.

    Let me know if what I am saying isn't clear.
     
    #43     Feb 12, 2007
  4. MTE

    MTE

    Not true, a contract has a buyer and a seller, so an increase in open interest in calls doesn't mean an increase in long positions. It just means new positions were open. The "initiator" could had been buying or selling.
     
    #44     Feb 12, 2007
  5. #45     Feb 23, 2007