If you look at call spreads, here are the results with a 10% bullish assumption. Note the D% column is with the shifted distribution to make the expected value of the stock price up 10%. Here's how I rank the columns in the table above to calculate the Rank column: I have the distribution and forecast weighted equally and the reward risk up there too. Here's the top ranking call spread given these inputs and my ranking: The break even is $28.75 and the reward risk is 8.3 : 1.
Here's that trade overlaid with the stock price, insider trades (note the large buy in green up arrow), valuVol shading (the green is buy and red is sell), and trendlines. The IV/HV graph at the bottom with the earnings line in the future shows that earnings is 5/5 so the 5/6 has the earnings move.
soooo, this isnt exactly what i had in mind. no sense in selling here, gotta ride it out now. buyout anyone?
I've never seen a company go from market darling to pariah as quickly as Peloton. Down a mere 92% in 16 months. Amazing. Now I hear they want to dump their hardware and become a software only company.