Options as an insurance - Why is it not working? Or does it? VAR 5% How?

Discussion in 'Options' started by thecoder, Oct 23, 2021.

  1. Take SPY as the obvious example. Mar 18 2022 400 call = $59.70, SPY price = $452.30. $52.30 of intrinsic value, $7.40 of extrinsic value. The extrinsic value is 12.4% of the option price; this is the price of your insurance.

    Over 2 months, let's say SPY moves up by $20 to $472.50. The call is now $72.30 ITM. The Jan 21 2022 380 call is the proxy for your 400 call after two months. The 380 call is worth $75.60; $72.30 = intrinsic value, $3.30 = extrinsic value. So in other words, you capture the $20 upside in SPY, and lose $4.10 of the original extrinsic value. You are $4.10 behind a long stock position (though you only spent 13.1% of the cost of buying 100 shares)

    Let's now say that SPY falls by $50 over two months. The 400 call is only $2.30 ITM. The Jan 21 2022 450 call is the proxy for your 400 call after two months. It is worth $14.79; $2.30 in intrinsic value, $12.49 of extrinsic value. If you were long stock, you were down $50. If you own the 400 call, you are only down $44.91.

    Let's go further and model a real correction; SPY falls $100 over two months. The Jan 21 2022 500 call is the proxy for the 400 call. It is only worth 35 cents, so essentially zero. Your option position loses $59.70-$0.35 = $59.35. If you owned 100 shares of stock, you lost $100.

    Obviously, my calculations assume that IV is unchanged, and that's not going to be true in practice. Honestly, IV is pretty low right now, so in the event of a downturn, it's going to rise, and it will provide a little upside "kick" to your long option.

    So to summarize:
    SPY + $20 => You lose $4.10 of upside relative to owning shares
    SPY - $50 => You lose $5.09 less relative to owning shares
    SPY - $100 => You lose $40.65 less relative to owning shares

    Does this all make sense? Is this the kind of "insurance" that you were looking for from options?
     
    #21     Oct 23, 2021
    Flynrider and BlueWaterSailor like this.
  2. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    that’s a lot of words. I assume this is cutting edge options math.
     
    #22     Oct 23, 2021
  3. I wouldn't bother reading it if I was you. If it's coming out of my keyboard, it probably ranges between Crap and outright disinformation :D. Technically-correct-but-uninsightful is a stretch goal
     
    #23     Oct 23, 2021
  4. thecoder

    thecoder

    @morganpbrown, thx for the detailed example. But it uses a DTE of just 5 months, right? It gets costly doing this for the said whole year (cf. OP), isn't it?
    Another problem is how to calculate the percentage loss: ie. if the Call expires worthless, then what is your loss in percentage? IMO it's 100% loss. But we wanted to limit the loss to 5%. How much is it according to your calculation?
    But I must admit that I haven't grasped yet the role of the said proxy strike... Does it mean buying another Call?

    In the initial posting of this thread a stock position had to be protected/insured, but then you offered a solution w/o the stock, by using just a Long ITM Call option. Just reminding how we got here.
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2021
    #24     Oct 24, 2021
  5. traider

    traider

    Read the guru's thread. He already leaked many many option strategies without any losses that are always profitable from inception.
     
    #25     Oct 24, 2021
    qlai likes this.
  6. The "proxy option" is not a profound concept; just a quick way to model an option's price as time passes and the underlying price changes. Say you own an option with 120 DTE that is $50 ITM. What will that option be worth with 90 DTE if the underlying moves up $20? You could a) model it with Black-Scholes, or b) look at an option - today - with 90 DTE that is $70 ITM. b) is the "proxy option".
     
    #26     Oct 25, 2021
    BlueWaterSailor likes this.
  7. I learned this a while back from a convo with a former floor trader. His boss would literally slap him on the head when he was trying to calculate the premium for up/down moves and go "duh, LOOK AT THE CHAIN." I'm told it didn't take more than a couple of smacks for him to get it... :)
     
    #27     Oct 25, 2021
    morganpbrown likes this.
  8. Well, this is my pat on the back for the day: I actually do something that real trader would consider common sense. Maybe this is going to work out...or maybe it's not! :D
     
    #28     Oct 25, 2021
    BlueWaterSailor likes this.
  9. My understanding is that an option is an insurance. So it is worthwhile to imagine options in practice to understand them.
     
    #29     Sep 29, 2022