Gut-feel. I solve for the risk to the barrier, as you know. That would've required 60 lots, as you've infered by your 50% comment. The delta is somewhat immaterial due to the gamma as we near the barrier. Solving for discrete hedges into the risk isn't worth the aggravation due to the gamma slope being parabolic. It's algebraic to solve for neutrality, or nearly so. Since I am mildly bullish it's more important that I solve for my hedge risk away from the barrier. I'm only willing to risk $25k on this bullish-stance.
The straddle is weak in the sense that there is > risk at the barrier than away from it. Normally, a straddle is neutral at the strike[think vanilla options] at the peak of the implied distro. The neutral req would have me in 60 futures, not 30, so the hedge is weak. I am expecting slight upside on SPX to 1190-95, but the position earns similarly to a vanilla straddle with a week to expiration. I am looking for a trade near-to, but not impacting the strike. Obviously, that's a bearish (convergence) position, but the initial vol-smile and delta/gamma position favors a rise. There aren't a great many books on exotics worth mentioning, and I've not read any of them. Any of the in-print texts available at Wilmott's book site are worth looking into.
Thank you RiskArb I am a member of Wilmotts, not a member more of a lurking admirer of you quants! lol how many actual trades make up this strategy?
"I run the parms through multiple pricing models and through more than one dealer." Hello riskarb, thanks for the quick answer. But, what´s the meaning of "parms" in your reply?
Nikkei double barrier no touch -- 12,950//13,950 Premium: 15,400,000Y Payout: 25,000,000Y [includes prem paid] Expires: Nov 7, 2005 Smile has flattened into the US advance. I'll hedge this one aggressively if need be.
Technically 15000 is resistance for nikkei.. I would favor being bearish on S&P and bullish on Nikkei. I would be somewhat neutral on Dax because its somewhat heavyweighted in oil stocks and oil appears to have setteled in a trading range.