Has anyone used the OptionPundit Newsletter? For the past 2 years, they are showing only 1 losing month. I wonder if anyone has subscribed to the newsletter and can share their feedback so far.
That is probably because they avoid getting audited. And definitely not their underlying trading stats. Anyone can avoid a losing month, if they are willing to accept huge drawdowns. Did not bother to look, as we get an endless flock of useless references from unknown posters to unknown systems like this. (And usually, they are shills.). But what was the losing month's total loss? And again, it is not about winning %. It is about Risk-Adjusted Reward.
I just found this old thread and wanted to share my experience. The newsletter posted results: 2007 May +22.3%; Jun +33.5% Jul +32.7%; Aug +17.9% Sep +6.9%; Oct,+57.3% Nov +17.1%; Dec- Chill Out 2008 Jan +14.8%; Feb +11.6% Mar+16.5%; Apr +9.2% May +3.9%; Jun +12.7% Jul +10.2%; Aug -10.9% Sep +8.2%; Oct +9.0% Nov +7.7%; Dec +17.7% 2009 Jan +8.2%; Feb +5.6% Mar +8.8%, Apr +12.5% May +9.5%, Jun +14.7% Jul +4.7%, Aug +7.8% Sept +11.7%, Oct +11.3% Nov +3.5%, Dec +13.2% 2010 Jan -5.8%, Feb +6.9% Mar +0.5%, April +9.7% May +18%, Jun +5.3% (Open) They use combination of condors, calendars, double diagonals butterflies etc. As you can see, they had 2 losing months of -10.9% and -5.8%. I was a subscriber for few months and I can testify that results are based on real fills from members. My biggest problem was excessive trading, big commissions and difficulty to get same fills. However, with more experience, I assume that replicating those results might be possible. The risk management is excellent and the service has huge educational value. I'm considering to rejoin.
Just make sure the net after commission. With heavy trading, the performance could be degraded significantly Try to ask for net after comm and you might be surprised on the result. Not too impressive with the performance. Core bread and butter has been and always multiple calendars to bracket prices which happens to do well in rising volatility. Would be okay just to learn the style but wont learn much as the focus is a paid newsletter and not educational even though the author claims otherwise
When I was a subscriber, my commissions were about 1% from the invested capital, so the net results should be reduced by 1% per month. I'm using IB and paying 70 cents per contract, I can assume that on average it might be slightly higher with most other brokers but still around 1.5-2%. You are correct about rising volatility but don't forget that those results include 3 years of trading. IV has been on steady decline since Feb. 09 till two weeks ago.
Could you show me another service that achieved 111% in 2008 and 112% in 2009 (non compounded) with similar level of risk?