Option expiration term and IV change risk

Discussion in 'Options' started by MrAgi1, Nov 1, 2022.

  1. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    EI? Not sure what that is.


    Yeah with most option pricing tool you can see how OTM is significantly affected by change in IV compared to ATM options.

    Magnitude of change in IV across different expiration is the output. I want to know how sudden news/events(an input) changes IV across expiration(output). Now I don’t think that can be simulated optionstrat, no?
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2022
    #11     Nov 2, 2022
  2. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    it's not THAT simple.

    First things first:
    1. you cannot trade vol, you only trade bids, offers, options premium. Intrinsic value is determined by the relationship between spot and strike, everything else is optionality. If you buy a 30d call at 40 vols, wait 10 days and it still trades at 40 vols while spot stays the same you have lost money

    2. Optionality is bought and sold. Supply and demand...

    3. BSM which includes implied volatility is a FRAMEWORK to compare options with different maturities and strikes as well as options to the average log return of the underlying in the respective period. Read that again and again. Print it and stick it to your screen.
    Just like annual interest rates are used to compare a 10y government bond to a 3y junk bond. One yields 4%, the other is at 15%...easy to spot which one pays more although they are two completely different assets.


    So instead of thinking "which option will pay me more" look at the option and compare it to other options AND to the actual realized volatility of the underlying. Underlying trades at 10 vols realized while the 30day put option trades at 15...so you pay an extra 5vols for your put.

    But when the 90d pays 20 vols, you probably should buy the 30d and sell the 90d to finance the decay of the 30 with an extra 10 vols of risk premium.

    Implied volatility is a tool to do just that. A tool to compare prices of nonlinear instruments.
    In the end, all comes down to what other players hedge with.
    If you are buying the 30d put and right after that everyone buys the 30d puts to hedge the pandemic, you're golden...but if everyone bloats the premium of the 1year put, you are getting a bit of downside gamma which is outweighted by the vol spike in the LEAP.

    IV surface gives you a hint what to look for. What's the flavour of the month? Everyone buying puts into FOMC? Well, their IV is probably too high to still buy them. As the famous option MM saying goes: "always buy the second highest IV"
    On the other hand, 25d calls are insanely underpriced in a bull market since everyone keeps selling them as covered calls up to a point where they trade at par or even below realized vol.

    This entire option thing is much simpler than you think wich makes it much more difficult at the same time. Read Pierino Ursones book on option pricing.
     
    #12     Nov 2, 2022
  3. cesfx

    cesfx

    Earth Imperator lol
     
    #13     Nov 2, 2022
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  4. taowave

    taowave

    EI=Earth Imperator=not helpful= being kind

    You would need Orats and chart various maturity rolling vol....

    I find praying to the Option Gods for square root of time to hold helpful when all else fails :)

    P.s. my suggestion was an eyeball test to see how various DTE vol behaves in a dislocation..

     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2022
    #14     Nov 2, 2022
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  5. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    that or forward volatility
     
    #15     Nov 2, 2022
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  6. ondafringe

    ondafringe

    Be very careful of options advice coming from "noobs" wearing "experienced" clothing. One of those two guys is a noob... and it's not @MrMuppet :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2022
    #16     Nov 2, 2022
  7. taowave

    taowave

    And look at Mr Muppets Likes to Posts ratio...
     
    #17     Nov 2, 2022
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  8. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    dude pls, don't...

    People are idiots for the most part and like whatever feeds their confirmation bias and this has nothing to do with knowledge^^

    Just look at @destriero, probably the geekiest option guy on ET everyone has to bow down to, yet one of the most loathed posters at the same time because of his habbit of shitting all over stupid questions and writing in hieroglyphs.

    Nah, post to like ratio is not what defines knowledge

    Nevertheless...I give you a couple to prop up yours :D
     
    #18     Nov 2, 2022
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  9. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    its not like you have an avatar of a hot girl. What are we supposed to judge you on? The quality of your content?
     
    #19     Nov 2, 2022
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  10. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    Don't give me stupid ideas XD
     
    #20     Nov 2, 2022