Many people probably are familiar with the maximum pain theory. The conventional wisdom is by the option expiration day, the stock tend to trade at a level that minimize the total liquidation value of all options, both calls and puts. It is generally true, but not always. If the outstanding options are too low comparing with daily trade volume, probably it does not work. But what of the outstanding in-the-money options is a really big number comparing with daily trade volume, is it more likely that the maximum theory will be true? Here is a real case. Stock currently trading at $3.70. For December expiration, The only in the money call options are 849 calls at $2.50. On the put side, in the money puts include 1061 puts at $5, 3784 puts at $7.50, 523 puts at $10, 7 and 3 at $12.5 and $15. So total in the money puts are 5378 contracts, worth 0.5378M shares. Average daily trade volume is about 300K to 500K. Do you guys think that because of the huge disparity of in the money puts and calls, the maximum pain theory will push the stock from $3.70 to close the week at $5.00 to $7.50? The stock is PAL.