Opportunity Knocks- THRX

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Oct 29, 2007.

  1. If you have a child in school you know about MRSA.

    I have been involved with biotech so long I take many of these ailments personally and I have seldom been as scared as I am of the new Hospital Super Bug running around. I have played this game before of course to great failure in the past. Drug companies don't really lay it all out for anti bacterial stuff... but the gov does and will and this is a really big problem.

    I spent the last four days or so running through all the investment options out there to battle this bacteria strain... and I've landed on Theravance. THRX. It is an ugly chart I won't lie to you- pull it out 3 years and you will see that you are sitting on good support. They recently got one of those lousy your drug is great but your manufacturing idea sucks letters that bio investors hate so... the stk is cheap here folks! Too cheap for a 1Half 08 story that is only held up my small items. With the severity of the problem and urgent need for new treatment options to kill this Staph that otherwise won't die...The FDA is bound to respond very quickly to the Co's changes. This is a real investment. I've attached a 1st Boston blurb on the name. I just went in, you can feel good about doing this- it will save our children. And you'll feel even better if THRX partners up. Buy. ~ stoney

    *investors are now heavily focused on the upcoming results of the
    hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP) trial. As we have previously discussed, we
    are positively biased towards the HAP trial and believe that there is a good
    chance for telavancin demonstrating superiority in MRSA. However, with the
    stock in the low $20s, we believe even a non-inferiority outcome with a positive
    trend would drive the stock higher. We are comforted by the outcome of the end
    of phase II meeting for TD-5108 but prefer the company to partner the program
    ahead of starting a large Phase III program.
    • What’s New? Theravance reported net loss per share (including stock options)
    of ($0.53) per share, versus consensus and our estimates of ($0.63) and ($0.55),
    respectively. Total revenue of $5.7 million was slightly higher than our estimate
    of $9.8 million (consensus: $8.0 million) and operating expenses were at $40.4
    million versus our estimate of $44.5 million. At the end of the quarter, THRX had
    cash and cash equivalents of 137.5 million.
    Implications: Telavancin’s approvable letter last week was a disappointment;
    however, given no new trials are required, we think the issues should be
    resolved (with approval) in 1H08. Further, with the stock price in the low $20s,
    we think the negative news is already fully priced into the stock. As a reminder,
    our sum of the parts analysis values the company in the high $20s without
    telavancin at all. Thus, in light of potential positive results in HAP study and
    significant value in the rest of the pipeline, we maintain outperform rating and
    $36 price target. Research Analysts
    Michael Aberman, M.D.
    Mani Mohindru, PhD.
    Y. Katherine Xu, Ph.D.
    Harvey Johnson, Ph.D.
    Stoney. Stoned Out Cat.