Oppinion On Solars?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by hottpotat0, Feb 15, 2008.

  1. Solars are just off their yearly lows it seems,they have posted earnings this week which were good with good outlooks for future-selloff the last two days on good news(institutions selling into strength?)------------------------stocks look sideways
    BIG QUESTION IS where is Solar going???????????????
    breaking down or moving higher???????????
    thanks for the info-T
  2. Oil has plateaued, so the panic is gone.
    Solar tech is far away from being commercially viable, for big scale. Now most solar panels consume more energy in their production, than the energy they will provide in their useful lifetimes: a net loss.

    So, IMO solars will go sideways or lower for the next six months.
  3. tier1


    One word: NanoSolar
  4. Obama is making alternative energy a big part of his platform, which could be a long-term positive should he be elected.

    Solar may not be in its prime yet, but not sure what other alternatives are more viable. Several of the biggest cap solars off 40%-60% from their highs. I would like to see oil back under $90 while the broader market moves down or sideways before attempting an entry though.
  5. Solar of course works thats the bottom line. Go to any out of the way place that needs energy and you will find a lot of solar panels. Can this translate to mass scale? I think so as more rebates are offered hopefully more buildings will incorporate some solar panels to power cell towers and such. In the china desert there is a massive installation that will be the wave of the future but that type of set up has to be out in the open flat landscape like outside of vegas or phoenix but it can be done whole cities can come off the grid. I'm torn but the stocks move fast and I think the numbers don't lie the bottom lines of some of these companies are soaring so their must be at least a wholesale buyer out there for there products. As electric cars come and go and battery technology yield little in rev, the street will look green where they can find the growth. Compared to all other options now solar has the growth. I think they are still in play and will go up despite oil not banging on $100 each day. I'm still bullish on the group in particular- CSIQ, ENER, YGE, EMKR. ~stoney
  6. thanks guys for the download-still nervous but seems this is critical time to buy in if they are going higher-today was rough especially for YGE-someone sold a lot of shares into strengthwhen selling pressure goes away could double quikly as well as many others-good luck i am J holmes now :)
    hope no backfire crash-but how couls it with mkt being so short???????????
  7. my favorites are YGE and JASO

    the whole group is going to move higher over the next couple years

    buy buy buy
  8. The Top Dog speaks! Mentions three of stoney's picks.Thank you NotableCalls for freeing this up-

    Last week I asked NCN Solar, a trader closely following & trading the Solar space give us an overview of the current state of the things. I talk to NCN Solar almost every morning going over the most important developments - a great help to understanding the rapidly changing sector.

    NCN Solar:

    I put some thoughts together more to educate you as to what is happening, and perhaps will make it easier to capitalize on coming news in 2008. It will continue to be choppy and unpredictable, so its best to just be prepared for what may happen and to know how to react.

    There seems to be more private equity money going into alternative energy than in any other sector. The high oil prices of the last few years as well as climate concerns, has led to a quest to reach grid parity with electric rates. Most of the ways to play the growth in the US markets involve stocks in the Solar sector. There are 2 well known technologies: Thin Film which includes First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ:ENER), and many exciting private companies and Silicon which is led by SunPower Corp (NASDAQ:SPWR), Suntech Power (NYSE:STP) and many others.

    Let us take a closer look at both these groups. FSLR is the clear cost leader. They developed Thin Film CDTE technology which doesn't require the currently expensive polysilicon, and is a quick production process which FSLR has successfully copied at their other facilities. There are certain geographies, such as areas of Germany, where no other product can come close to comparing. As they increase their conversion efficiency to 12% of the sunlight to power, and continue to increase production and yields, they appear well in the lead towards grid parity, at a point which this growing market expands to incredible levels. There are a number of private companies, NanoSolar, Miasole etc. as well as ASTI and DSTI which are working on Thin Film CIGS technology in a well financed drive to reach what FSLR has accomplished. There are various challenges in scaling this technology, and its certainly hard to know exactly how close these companies have come. The Thin Film amorphous technology, is a bit difficult to understand, because the conversion efficiency achieved so far, does not seem high enough to compete.

    As we enter 2008, no one comes close to FSLR in terms of cost per watt. So why is there strong interest in anyone else? In the residential market, it does not appear that FSLR will be a player, and I’m not sure they are even suitable for that. Because FSLR has lower efficiency, they require more panels, which means the amount of roof space, or cost of land, can tilt the economics. There are also various geographies, where perhaps the amount of sunlight or heat, can work better for a silicon company. As we stand right now, the costs for silicon panel companies are much higher, but they are greatly influenced by the inflated level of polysilicon prices. The current poly demand dwarfs the supply. This affects the companies in different ways, and its worth looking at which solar stocks have most of their polysilicon at contract rates, and which need to purchase their required poly at spot prices. At some point, the additional supply from China will come online, and one would expect the prices to drop significantly. A company like WFR which benefits from selling polysilicon in the market, will have to deal with the lower prices in the future, though at this time, they are doing very well. Once these prices do come down, the buyers of polysilicon, STP SPWR etc. will see their costs dropping and can become more competitive with FSLR in more locations, and can start the move towards grid parity. At this point SPWR is a technology leader with their high efficiencies, and tracking systems, and STP is a leader helped by their low cost operation and low taxes. We will see if anyone else can make the leap to the top tier.

    The important thing to understand is that what is good for one solar company may not mean much for another. We recently saw FSLR blow away estimates for the quarter and guide higher. This may not mean that the silicon players will have a good quarter. But it does show what can be achieved, when your costs are low, and when you run the operation smoothly. A future drop in polysilicon prices would be a big help for a polysilicon company that buys at spot prices, but may not mean as much for a silicon company that has a great supply, and would probably be negative for FSLR because other companies will become more competitive in some markets.

    What I look for in 2008, is that we will see the winners and the losers start to emerge. The same way that many tech companies did not emerge from the internet boom, many wont succeed in solar. But the ones who will, meaning the ones that achieve grid parity, or assist companies in achieving, will be continued winners. We should begin to see more poly supply come on line before the end of the year, and a drop in poly prices will help the industry. At a certain point, the silicon players may decide they would rather not sell a panel even if there is demand, because they don’t want to pay up for poly. But that would lead to this coming drop in prices. Utility solar deals will be big news this year. FSLR has suggested that there will be multiple pilot projects for utility solar deals in the United States and a number of companies will be in the race for utility deals. This may be helped by the expected extension of solar tax credits which should take place before the end of the year. There is bypartisan support for these credits, and once the politics get played out, it seems clear that the bill will get passed. We may hear more about other solar technologies. EMKR is a player in CPV (Concentrated PhotoVoltaic) which has high conversion efficiency, and concentrates the sunlight on to a cell. There is also strong potential from solar thermal technology. We should also here more about the progress on Nanosolar and other new entrants. There likely will be more ups and downs then we saw in 2007, which was virtually all up. But there should be some big winners once again from some old and perhaps some new names.

    Best regards,

    NCN Solar

    & Thank you NCN; if SPR is really a "leader" then that leader is on sale folks! Probably Buying Tuesday.
  9. bat1



    announced that it plans to supply up to 700 megawatts of concentrating photovoltaic solar panels to privately held solar-project developer SunPeak Solar LLC. Jed Dorsheimer, an analyst with Canacord Adams, an investment bank with headquarters in Vancouver, estimates the partnership might yield up to $1 billion for Emcore.

    Emcore, a semiconductor company in Albuquerque, N.M., has been focusing more on solar business. “Solar is the growth engine of the company,” Mr. Dorsheimer says.

    will triple in 6 mos
  10. bat it's one of my larger holdings in my trading account. Triple is an understatement I think, a lot depends on how this spin off is handled. I would like to see the price get up to around $19 $20 and then give folks ten days to get in if they want a free share.... that would catapult the stock in a big way... then there would be the huge sell off the other side of the business... which would be a nice buy since things aren't going that badly there either anymore. It seems like a great company, wish I had a little better read on management but people I trust say they are very good. Ditto ENER's new management... STP is another question but boy has that been hammered.... a bounce candidate if nothing else. ~ stoney
    #10     Feb 18, 2008