Hi all, Anyone here got a view on where China's markets are going? I know there are a few China bears stalking these forums, however I would like to have a conversation grounded as much as possible on facts and as little as possible on expectations. I will state the facts I know: Pro Bear: -Trade war raging on at least until next year -Shrinking and (possibly) overstated GDP figures -Very high debt to GDP ratio, which ties the hands of central banks if stimulus is needed -USD reserves shrinking -Depreciating currency makes stock investments less attractive -25D RR for the 50ETF options (the only options available) around -10% Pro Bull: -tariff pain is likely at its highest, further tariff hikes very unlikely -strong national sentiment and controlled media in a country where 80% is retail -dominated. -opening up of financial markets -state funds propping up the market every time it reaches critical levels. -the market recovered almost immediately after the news of the last hikes -market moving higher with decreasing volatility According to Ken Fisher (which I think is a guy who knows his shit) there are 3 drivers for market demand: 1-economic 2-political 3-sentiment only when all 3 elements are pointing down you have a real bear. In the current situation only driver#1 is negative. There are no issues on driver#2 as there is an active involvement by policy makers to keep the machine running, and also driver #3 is fine, as the heat that china is taking internationally had the effect of rallying everyone around their flag internally. My take is that the market COULD actually turn into a bear if the pain persists long enough to drag down sentiment ,and then you also need some other sort of catalyst like a policy blunder. And now.. flame on!