Operation Corkscrew to be Launched this Wed? Market Up or Down?

The biggest news for Sep 2011??

’Operation Twist’ May Flop, Says Barclay Capital’s Pond
Q
By John Tucker - Sep 19, 2011 5:49 AM PT


Any effort by U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers to lengthen the duration of the central bank’s portfolio and decrease long term interest rates may not succeed, according to Michael Pond, co-head of interest- rate strategy at Barclays Capital.
“Its not clear that it will work,” Pond said of “Operation Twist,” the name given to a Fed tactic to raise interest rates on longer dated treasury securities in an attempt drive investors into risker assets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-19/-operation-twist-may-flop-says-barclay-capital-s-pond.html

 

TLT is at new high today. how far may it reasonably go?

 

The annualized yield on 30-year Treasury bonds dived to 3.22%, down from 3.31% on Friday and the lowest since January 2009 — the depths of the last recession. The 10-year Treasury note yield, a benchmark for mortgage rates, slid to 1.95%, down from 2.05% on Friday and near the generational low of 1.92% reached Sept. 9. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0920-markets-fed-20110920,0,4953009.story

:eek:

Fade the move??

 

Im going to have to say flat, I mean doesn't everyone already know that they will do the twist thing? So it must be already worked in to prices.

 

Fed could over- or under-twist tomorrow.

my thinking is that Ben does not want to overstimulate the stock market the way he did last fall. now he knows that the market will puke the stimulus back quickly, probably quicker than the last time.

no major surprise makes sense.

 

Down: Everyone's thinking....what if it doesn't work, what then ?
Greece - here we come !!!

 

Just another big mistake BUBBLE ben bernanke is making, reason being is that everything he has done so far has been a mistake, as I said a thousand times over NOTHING can fix this credit crisis, the more BUBBLE ben bernake interferes the worse its going to get, you would have to be a fool not to understand that.

 

I am moving my sell-off prediction to next week. I see a volatility squeeze building but not yet. No one ever knows but conditions are forming to see a squeeze up in VIX and a nasty downside sell-off in all asset classes. I had predicted today or tomorrow but I think the fingers in the dike will hold until next week. A small slide this week into the close then next week we may see some 4 and 5% ranges again

 

If he announces the "Twist", I would go with a selloff, (buy the rumour, sell the fact). However, there is potential for some surprise move, possibly QE3 or something, if so markets will go ballistic.