I have wondering statements like this for years now. Why do people get so upset when they pay $10 for shipping and they see that it only costs the shipper $3.00. Do people go buy a $50 shirt and go back to the store when they find out the shirt actually cost Macy's $5.00 for them to buy? Not bashing the poster of this statement but I see it all the time in the ebay community. Just makes me laugh when i see people leave negative feedback to sellers for charging more then what they actually paid. Sorry,,, just had to say something
Charlie, You completely misunderstood me. I know that there are methods to read price direction, I have developed some of the best either by myself or with cooperation with others. I was refering to AG markets only ,on intraday basis where consistancy of my methods was much lesser then in stock indexes. I have spend lot of time studying grains but always been more profitable in Indexes or Bonds. Cycles and predictive methods work consistently on stock indexes the way I do it. They do not work as good on AG markets.
I think they lowered the postage and handling several weeks ago, I think its like $6.85 now. I have talk them in to not increasing the price until Sunday afternoon, so if you are interested , take me up on it. It is a great video.
============ Murray; Good points on trends and believe it or not remember your first name and exact spelling. And speaking of simple concepts, have been thinking about buying your book with Adriene T; would you mind sharing 2 or 5 simple concepts which meant the most to you from that book. Just shared a simple/profitable concept with FUTURESTRADER71 today; that buy high sell higher works well; except when JNPR [not a stock tip] hit north of $200, buy high , sell higher stopped working for several years. However tek stocks tend to trend up nicely in last quarter. Murray nickname t turtle
First if you are interested in this book it's only $24.95 on TradersStudio.com and if anyone buy's it just private message me and I will make sure you get a autographed copy, tell me if you want it personalized. The link is http://www.tradersstudio.com/Defaul...alogID=5&psnavcmd=CatalogItemDetails&tabid=38 You do not need a referral code: Back to your question well, there are a lot of methodologies that do work, but let me talk a little about this book. For example on thing, which you will see from this book, is trading, is hard work. You need to make an effort to be successful. In this book we learn that for both long and short term stock trading, screening the stocks is really important to be successful, using both technical and fundamental screens. They these successful traders always followed their methodologies. Notice I did not say system because about 40% of the trades of the 14 we interviewed were not system traders. They had a methodology, which they followed, but it was not a set of rules a computer could run. In addition they all limited their risk, all except for Sheldon Knight, who turned 50,000 into over 1,000,000 in one year, he believed that if you don't have at least a 40% drawdown your not risking enough to maximize returns I also think that CanSlim has value, we also had a trader who used this method and turned $10,000 into over $1,000,000 in a few years trading options. He discussed rules for trading CanSlim for both long and short positions in the book. Another theme is that most traders lost all their money several times before they finally were able to make a living doing this. In this book I ask each of the traders about there methodologies. Then at the end of the chapter I analyzed what they told me and tried to fill the holes in what they did not tell me where I could. I would love to give you just one method, but from reading this book you will see there are a lot of methodologies, which work, Just like the variety of different types of personalities of the people who trade. The question is what works for you. I could give you the Holy Grail and if that system does not fit your personality you will lose money with it. Unless you let a broker trade it and forget about it. One of the concepts behind the way we did this book is that not only did we interview them; we then added analysis of both their Psychological makeup and their technical method. This is at the hard of NLP, which is the science of modeling other people who have been successful at what you want to do.
Murray, Having been away for a couple of days, I find the content of this thread interesting. Thanks to all who are posting replies. Back to my question for you, Murray. Have you done any research on using today's close as the basis for a breakout method or do you strictly use tomorrow's open? If you used today's closing range as the breakout point, does that fundamentally change the approach or does it work the same as the opening range? I have done a little work and it looks promising but I thought perhaps you might have some input before I devote a lot of time to its pursuit. Thanks!
Yes, I have worked on developing systems, which enter on an offset off of yesterdays close. In general it is much harder but still possible to develop systems which use yesterdays close as a anchor. One example of this type of system is the Nasdaq stock trading system which ships with TradersStudio. I have discussed this special report on the issues involved in trading stocks as well as fully disclosing the rules of this system before. It is free just for registering TradersStudio.com. The first few pages of the report are available without registering but the rules require registering. Here is the link if you are interested. http://www.tradersstudio.com/Default.aspx?tabid=126 This same registration will also let you video part 2 of the opening range breakout video. In general I would say if you just substitute yesterday's close in an opening range breakout system for tomorrow's open profits will drop by about 50%. It requires some work to develop a system, which does as well as an opening range breakout system, using the close as an anchored. You might ask why you would want to do it then. Well it makes it easier to trade. Many broker will trade opening range breakout systems which have been developed using end of day data as system assist. They wait for the open to print and place the order. These systems print the orders for tomorrow as an offset of tomorrow open. '(C) 2004 TradersStudio(r) all rights reserved ' Simple ORB system to trade the QQQ, also works short term on nasdaq. Sub SimpleOpenRangeBreakOut(MULT) Dim AveTr Dim Nxtopen If BarNumber<LastBar Then Nxtopen=NextOpen(0) Else Nxtopen=0 End If If Close>Open Then Sell("SellBrk",1,Nxtopen-MULT*TrueRange,Stop,Day) End If If Close<Open Then Buy("BuyBrk",1,Nxtopen+MULT*TrueRange,Stop,Day) End If End Sub You can see here that if we are on the last bar we set nxtopen to zero. This will cause TradersStudio to print in the active order the entry as Mult*Truerange , which is the offset from the open we want to place the order. TradeStation has an âopen of tomorrowâ command but , it is not very flexible for example if I remember correctly it does not work as expected in systems requiring a data2 or many other cases, at least up though TradeStation 6.0. This is why over the years I have sold, maybe 500-1000 copies of my next open command for TradeStation , which I use to ship with my newsletter , disk service. If you donât mind paying a full service broker , then at least for liquid markets like bonds and stock indexes you can develop systems using the next open on end of day data and have a broker trade it. If you want to do it yourself then these are much harder to trade. If you are trading stocks, and developing on end of day data then you need to develop systems based on the close, because stock broker will not be able to place these types of orders and it will require trying to do it your self in real time. If you are trading more than a few stocks this could be difficult.
I registered on the TraderStudio web site and reviewed the free .pdf file with the rules and analysis of your NASDAQ trading system. The difference in the results using split adjusted prices and the TradersStudio Stock Contract is amazing. I am currently using TradeStation 4.0 because of its stability and will try the system out on split adjusted data since the rules were disclosed. TradersStudio looks interesting to say the least. Can you do the analysis for spread trading with it without having to reinvent the wheel? What about technical support? Regards!
One group of customers that are important to us are 4.0 and 2000i users who don't want to switch because of the investment they have in EasyLanguage, but either don't like or don't want to use TradeStation as their broker. In addition we are looking at stock traders who after realizing that split adjusted data does not give accurate results want to do their analysis based on real prices and have the software handle trades which occur on splits instead of using split adjusted data. They want to do this because without it they can not develop a stock system on a portfolio and analyze the results based on a 50,000 account for example. because buying Microsoft stock on a split price of .11 does not make any sense. In terms of spread trading , I have looked into it a little , but that is one area I have not done research in. What tools would a spread trader like to have. I can tell you how we could do it in 1.3.5 if possible and if you explain it , and spread trading has interest , I will make sure it gets added to 2.0 more directly. To the group , is there a spread trading thread on this site ? In terms of support we have multiple people in our tech support department. Support is normally available from 10:00 am to 7:00 pm. A few of our support people will answer E-Mail and support desk questions from home after hours. Product support makes or breaks a product and I think our support is the best in the business.