OK, another year and I hope you're still making money! I'm hoping I have good WiFi for Friday, will post if I do. Have a Great Year everyone. Don
Here's a simple re-cap of my 2008 opening orders results. I've posted this info at the beginning of the year going back to 2003 so figured I'd continue the tradition. Check the first page of the 2008 thread for links. This strategy is not my bread and butter any more. I've been doing it so long it's like a habit, and I enjoy it. I'm mostly automated now and this is a chance for me to bang on some keys and keep in touch with manual trading. I didn't change anything this year, mostly the same 50 or so stocks, average size 3-4,000 shrs. Flat in 10-15 minutes. 2008 actually seemed pretty mild and consistent. No really bad days, and the increased volatility made things easier. I changed the way I kept stats for 2008, so as a result I don't have the level of detail I used to. These are the stats I can pull out of my spreadsheet: Gross $150,700 on 5.37 million shares traded for a cps avg of 2.8 which is about double my historical average. Daily profit factor (sum of all wins / sum of all losses) is 3.3. Five best days Mon, Oct 13 21,392 95,800 Fri, Jun 20 12,370 32,800 Tue, Jan 22 9,880 36,400 Mon, Sep 15 7,177 87,600 Wed, Oct 8 6,963 31,800 Five worst days Tue, Sep 16 (6,785) 95,200 Mon, Nov 24 (5,467) 74,600 Tue, Jul 22 (4,397) 40,800 Tue, Jan 8 (3,969) 20,000 Wed, Aug 20 (3,580) 43,400 Monthly summary JAN $6,575 349,000 FEB 9,600 382,200 MAR (855) 88,400 APR 1,262 16,800 MAY 8,353 359,600 JUN 15,580 531,800 JUL 10,996 513,000 AUG 1,570 377,400 SEP 6,664 792,800 OCT 48,939 601,300 NOV 15,981 670,100 DEC 26,053 681,300
Thanks Cory for posting your stats. It's always a great reminder that while this strategy can be profitable over a one year period, there are some harsh realities involved. ie: 1) You are averaging 3,000-4,000 shares per issue 2) You have approx 50 issues on your list 3) You netted out approx. $125,000 for the year 4) You had one day where you lost almost $100,000 5) That one day loss flipped your year from being up approx. $50,000 to being down approx. $50,000 6) You had one day where you made almost $100,000 Drawdowns that take you from being up approximately $5,000/month to being down approximately $5,000/month, in a single day, can be devestating for an undercapitalized trader who has been pulling out monthly expenses along the way. Your advise about "expected worse drawdown" in an earlier post was "right on". Congratulations for booking some nice profits using this strategy in 2008. And thanks again for posting these stats, as it is a great "reality check" for all.
i think you confuse shares traded with profit. e.g. max one day profit was 21K on 96K shares traded on oct-13
December monthly review: Played 3 days! 3 longs, 4 shorts, 6 winners, 1 loser. +0.04 average. 2008 yearly review: Played from may (8 months). 240 longs, 196 shorts, 3.22 fills per day on average. 351 winners, 88 losers, 81% winner on average. Per share: +0.07$ on average, -0.44 min, +0.64 max. May +0.00 average (20 days) June -0.02 average (8 days) July +0.07 average (18 days) August +0.07 average (20 days) September +0.03 average (19 days) October +0.14 average (21 days) November +0.11 average (15 days) December +0.04 average (only 3 days) Improved things troughout the year, mostly stable since septembre. Still on small size, might increase over the next months/year. Good luck everyone
11 Fills today. 7 wins 3 losers 1 scratch +6.5c Been taking notes last two full months. Both months profitable averaging about 3c per share. My notes are not as detailed like the above posts but this is what I have for November and December.
Lescor, I am curious, do you filter out any sort of gaps in your selection based on technicals? (ie breakaway gaps) I understand the idea of cancelling news driven orders, but wasnt sure if people also looked at technicals (or the type of gap) when trading this strategy.