You might want to consider how the 4th Q differs from the summer months. What you initial comments look like to me are comparisons with the near term past. Get to a place where you recognize how the market operates when it leaves a daily setting that is largely characterisable as "consolidation". Once you see greater H/L ratios, as you are now, you will find that trading is entirely different. Notice the carping going on from a lot of people whose approaches are now screwing up because of this change in scenery. The buy after pullback crowd, The faders, the "gap edgers"; all these people are screwed for the quarter. Trend traders usually miss the boat too. Especially on the open. for a while now with the near past consolidation type theme playing, the trend traders screw up the open by not using the "carry over" of trends day to day. this happens for quite a while untilthey wake up. Trendtraders also screw up thinking that the trends stall out on S and R testing because of the narrow range of H/L they are used to. Nowadays since the H'L ratio is greater there are a zillion more ops for reversals on moderate or slow trend trends. You can use today as an example even with the sentiment rolling out at 9:45 as "news". The today's short carried over from yesterday (just like the long did on the rollover yestrday). and at the L of the H/L for today an even slower long emerged. It was a simple reversal from a moderate shro trend into a slower long to set up the segway into midday 4 oclock drift. There will be the pm trends comming up today as well. at least two linked trends going into the weekend. The six or more edge groups I mentioned or inferred are going through their lagging efforts to recalibrate their R/R ratios their readjustments on their stop offsets and their maximum contract limitations. Until they get that done they are getting the usual feeling of being beat up and not knowing why. learning why gaps do not retrace in the fourth quarter comes slowly. A lot of people sit complacently thinking that the whole year runs on the same stats. It doesn't and people who read generalized books and have appproaches that they don't clean up as the "seasons" of the market change always go through the usual pain and learning the hard way. go back to when "summer" started. Do you remember all that crap about "chop" whipsaw" "whippy". LOL is it the same old "edge" trader's BS of pissing and moaning out of their ridiculous "attitude". "Attitude' is always running the show for some people. They blow out because they can't ride with the "seasonal" changes. Lots of adjustments are required for the fourth Q.
there was an article in active trader mag regarding fading gaps on the open, with plenty of statistics. i've been trying it with mixed results, and lost this morning, but it was my fault because you aren't supposed to do it when there is a 10:00 number... i'd like to get this automated somehow. anyway, definitely check out the article if you're interested in this strategy. actually, there was a thread on here by those guys from tradingfrommainstreet that quoted some stats as well.
If the stats are not divided by cogent divisions that break the year into appropriate parts, downgrade your view of the article. Do not get caught in presentations that generalize. The alternative: if possible take raw data that you find backing the articles and redo it into more sensible processed information for your traditional seasonal modifications that you already make on your proven methods and approach.