opening gaps not filled anymore

This would be the third day in a row that the opening gap wouldn't be filled in NQ.

 

Might have something to do with 24 hr. trading in futures...?

 

I take the open of NDX as a reference.

 

and?

 

The probabilities certainly aren't what they used to be. Perhaps a result of range contraction.

 

today is a very good chance 80%

 

80% that it is filled or not filled???ß

 

OK, market just gave the answer. Do you have a study about this stuff? How do you calculate that 80%?

 

I use 70% of yesterday's volume,
If market opens inside that range GAPs are filled with 80% chance and if market opens outside the range NO edge 50/50 chance.
I did my own study based on 9 months of data and on low volume days unusual things happen more often (for instance last December) was very difficult to play gaps.

 

When you say 70% of yesterday's volume, does that mean the price range that encompassed 70% of volume? Is this a Market Profile concept?