OPEC Meeting 12/17

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by erlewine, Dec 16, 2008.

  1. Well the press release seems to be at 4pm from the link you posted.

    Algeria is GMT + 1 and EST is GMT -5 so I make that 10am Eastern Stanard Time?

    Like you pointed out it is only a 'tentative' schedule, so I guess we'll need to be on our toes all day.

    Personally, I believe that we've been buying up for the past few days waiting for this news. Everyone has been saying 1 - 2 mln bbls per day cut. If it's round that figure or below I think sell the news is coming in a big way - fundamentally there's just way too much of the stuff for the cut to make an immediate impact on the front month anyway.

    If we have a bigger than expected cut, say 2.5mln plus then I really have no idea what the market will do, but it will be volatile as hell.

    Just my view of course, and that's what makes a market!

    Good luck people.
     
  2. Was it just me or did anyone else think the way OPEC first confirmed the cut was well dodgy?

    They said it was a 4.2 mln cut (from september). Anyone reading and looking to trade that in a split second would have read that as bullish.

    Take a moment longer and you realise they have included the 2.2mln they'd already cut the last time.

    We already knew about that, so why include it?!!? Crafty people.

    I didn't trade it so I'm ok, but just thought it was dodgy the way it was reported on the news wires.
     


  3. Yep, and thats cost me over £3000 so far!!!!! :mad: :mad: :mad:
     

  4. Oh dear mate. £3000k. That sounds like more than 2% of your account? Care to share the details of the trade so we can all learn from it?
     

  5. 2%!!


    This is 25%.. :( :( :(


    I had gone long, market rocketd cos we all thought 4.2million cut, and s i cancelled target cos thought this would be a huge spike of a few dollars atleast, so wanted more than $1.


    Then the reality came and market crashed.



    I have to trde risking huge huge amounts since the trading capital is all the money that i have in the wordl and need to make a living off this.


    Im so so soo furious and and just sad n depressed that i got fucked over just cos the fcking news stations couldnt do their 1 n only job!

    (This was ransqwawk, a station that tries too charge £200 per month and only gives oil news
     
  6. To be fair mate the RANsquawk quys will only be reading what was printed on Reuters.

    I was at my desk when it happened and Reuters news wire printed something like "OPEC confirm 4.2 mln barrel cut from September".

    They would have only read out that exact line, just like our Squawk service did. So I'm not sure they can be blamed particularly... everyone was in the same boat.

    We didn't know what to tell clients. It was only one of our guys that said the last cut was in September, and we pieced it together. Some clients traded with it too.

    They just got out as soon as it went against them.

    I'm not trying to tell you how to trade mate, from what I've seen you're doing quite well, but 25% risk is lunacy if you want to survive in this game. I've read so many places that small percentage of account is the only way anyone survives drawdowns, and it's true. I'm no expert I know - just trying to help and ensure everyone learns together....

    This article is the best summary I've ever read of it.....

    http://www.babypips.com/school/money_management.html
     
  7. On Wednesday, 22 Aug 2007.- Eric Bolling, One of the Nymex largest Natural Trader ever, said on CNBC: "Ignore OPEC-They Cheat"

    Video.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/16596357/

    Quote from the article.-

    "“I’ve been doing this 20 years and all 20 years they’ve been cheating on their output quotas. They’re cheating on the quota they developed last year for December. They have an output cut for February that they’re probably going to cheat on. It doesn’t matter if they meet again and promise not to cheat , they’ll still cheat.”

    With OPEC so 'reliably unreliable' what should investors be watching. Eric Bolling said “You know what’s more important than OPEC, the price of gasoline. When gasoline doesn’t rally, crude oil’s not going up I don’t care what OPEC says they’re going to do. The last time oil was this price, the gas crack (or the value of the gas price over the value of the crude price) was 50% higher than it is right now. Unless gasoline rallies, crude doesn’t have a shot in the you know where.”
     
  8. I find that logic, it may rally, the market is full of surprises. According to this, the prices of oil can rally if the price of gas does, I tried to find some info about that but didn’t have much success, can anybody tell me how can the gas prices go up?