MK where do you stand on these market, you think the all mighty bull is back and ready to take on the big bad bear????
So explain why DJ futures are 100+ points below fair value right now. Also why bond yields actually decreased today during this bear market rally.
This November was a bad month for bulls. Only one day left and who would have thought we would be down after October?
Given what's really happening in credit markets, we could have a depression. Go out and talk to small businesses about their ability to line up credit - go talk to millions of Americans that lived on their home equity (that's vaporized - poof - they're negative now) or credit card lines (gone or nearly gone). You haven't seen anything yet.
By lo too many believe throwing Trillions of dollars at the problem is going to make it all disappear. I actually feel sorry for anyone who actually thinks this is true. I just do not see any damn reason to own equities right now with the economy in the shape its in, how can anyone actually think this economy is going to turn around, as I have said before and will say it again, the last 10 years of this great big historical boom was built on nothing more than monopoly money. There is no house to tap now for money to buy big suvs and 52" LCD tvs, ipods and the like, people have to understand that consumer debt is at record highs and the savings rate at record lows. Aside from that after many realize they cannot borrow against their house the next they run to is credit cards and I can tell you right now credit card delinquencies are SURGING and that my friend is the next major problem in this economy, there is over $1 Trillion worth and once that goes pop I dont know where consumers will turn to next. This story doesnt unfold in minutes or hours, this story will take many, many years to figure out, throwing money wont do a Fu$king thing, people will realize this of course after the fact when in reality its staring them right in the face. The economy goes through cycles, however it seems many think that bad ones should not exist and the reason why we are in this position at this very second is because of them trying to fight off the deep recession we could have had 5 or 6 years ago but didn't due to the fact that interest rates were lowered to historical lows, which right now they are doing the same exact thing. Good luck to the fools who think trillions of dollars is going to make it these credit problems disappear, the market rally you see these past few days is a chance to get out, if you think the bull is back on wallstreet or the credit crisis is well behind us you are a complete fool.....................
nice to see how sure you are about the outcome of this very unique event. People have to understand that Cash (US-Dollars) is just another asset class. You always have the choice between different asset classes and if I have to decide between Cash or US-Bonds and Stocks I would rather choose stocks now which will survive the credit crisis, I strongly believe US-Bonds will NOT. The greates bubble we currently have after the stock bubble and real estate bubble is now the Bond bubble. So even if the US-economy will fall in a deep depression which is highly likely the question how stocks are developing has to be seen and cannot be clearly answered unlike you may think. No, I am not currently invested in US-Stocks but have start to put money in Emerging market stocks (Brasil, China, Russia) and Europe. And I am cascading US-Bond shorts with a 5 year time frame.