GM, Chrylser, and some othe nutter car fim want $25B bailout - noone at treasurary has a clue on how to spend the $750B - initially we were told its buy toxic assets - but now any Big Joe The Plumber company in trouble wants a slice of the action - so we gonna rally right
They are taking the market so fucking low taht people will get shit scared out And yes no one can tell where the bottom or the top is
I have no faith in the bailouts, etc., but valuations are at their best levels since the early 80s. I know, the permabears say valuations are meaningless. They said the same 30 years ago..."Equities are dead" was the standard line. I'm no raging permabull, but the arguments from the permabears ignore historical data (always run when you hear "trust us, it's different this time") and are predicated upon some very poor comparisons to the Great Depression.
I would argue that the value of everything is being reevaluated....and I mean everything. If you believe valuations are at such a great level and that they have fully discounted the downturn yet to come, then by all means BUY! BUY! BUY!
I hear some Talking Heads (dumbasses, really) saying there is great value in the market with forward earnings of $85 or $100. In reality, the 12-month trailing earnings are $48.52... that makes the SP P/E = 18x... not cheap, and earnings more likely to fall further than explode to $85+.
If you had bought a Tbond on the first day of this month you could be up 9 points. Now if you are calling 9 points onside a sucker trade then I am calling you an oxygen thief...
Sorry if this offends but You give the public TOO MUCH credit! I used to trade for 401K accounts in 2003. Sheeple as they are lovingly called would react in the following way. I would check the Dow (yes, I know 30 components, price weighted and useless but we are talking sheeple), if Dow < -200, people call to get out of equity funds and jump into money market, Dow > +200, people call to jump out of money market to jump back into equity funds. The % greater than these 2 levels, the greater the amount of trades done that day. Fun, fun, fun. And just think, Bush wanted everyone to invest their own account. You and I would have to pay more taxes for those who could not manage their own retirement accounts.