Only 9% of traders earn positive lifetime net returns

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Prospergain, Jan 11, 2025.

  1. Businessman

    Businessman

    Sounds like LTCM/Victor Niderhoffer.

    I don't recommend trading like that.

    I only recommend trading in a way where you are in control of the risk you are taking.
    A trader can risk 50% of the account, 5% of the account, or 0.5% the account on any trade. Entirely with the traders control.

    The market could gap through my stop loss, but not had it happen to me in 25 years of day trading the RTH sessions. Even through the crazy market days in 2008 and covid.
     
    #21     Jan 11, 2025
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    *spits beverage all over screen.*
     
    #22     Jan 11, 2025
  3. Businessman

    Businessman

    A) 200 trades per year with 60% win rate and 1.6 RR = Sharpe ratio of 6

    B) 20 trades per year with 60% win rate and 1.6 RR = Sharpe ratio of 2

    Even if the OP could do B) it would be really good, but I doubt he can maintain even B.
     
    #23     Jan 12, 2025
  4. I do not know how you calculate Sharpe ratio, but for a 17 years backtest Metatrader 5 gives me a SR of 1.07

    Even worse when i load my backtest to Quant Analyzer 4
    Capture.PNG

    Myfxbook gives a small SR too
    Capture.PNG
     
    #24     Jan 12, 2025


  5. You’re looking for "serious investors" but you’re using Metatrader and have average drawdowns of 25%?! o_O

    You don’t live on the same planet as "serious investors". Beyond that, there are just no words. :wtf:
     
    #25     Jan 12, 2025
    Overnight, zdreg and Temujin79 like this.
  6. Businessman

    Businessman



    Not sure why people on this thread are so caught up with the 25% drawdown metric.

    You can cut that in half or less, easily enough using position sizing.

    A system that returns 150% a year with 25% drawdowns, becomes 60% returns with 10% drawdowns with a trivial position sizing change.


    However the results look too good to be true, but who knows maybe the OP has found the holy grail...
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2025
    #26     Jan 12, 2025
  7. VOLdemort

    VOLdemort

    Then you effectively have no stops. Zero is a stop (unless it’s CL futures).
     
    #27     Jan 12, 2025
  8. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    You don't allocate 100% of your portfolio to his high risk high return strategy. So his 25% drawdown is not scary at all.
     
    #28     Jan 12, 2025
  9. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    Because people are jealous haters.
     
    #29     Jan 12, 2025
    Prospergain likes this.
  10. VOLdemort

    VOLdemort

    You don't allocate your portfolio to a curve-fitted backtest of a system with 25% DD and a 1 Sharpe. Even the Sharpe is cherry-picked. HTF is this a thread?
     
    #30     Jan 12, 2025