Only 9% of traders earn positive lifetime net returns

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Prospergain, Jan 11, 2025.

  1. Wide Tailz

    Wide Tailz

    I can see how that can work if you're picking good stocks that keep going up. Most people can understand that and ride the little ups and downs in a trend.
     
    #101     Jan 12, 2025
    deaddog and Prospergain like this.
  2. Businessman

    Businessman

    I been saying that since post number 5 on this thread. The high win rate and RR but low Sharpe (which gives a measure of equity curve smoothness) just doesn't add up.

    It would seem the system produces winning and losing streaks in longer than expected lengths for a 60% win rate system. This is very strange and suspicious.
     
    #102     Jan 12, 2025
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    @Prospergain

    raising capital is really hard. There’s literally a thousand systems touting returns like yours with real money for years and audited returns.

    I could call my private banker right now and get 100 pitchbooks of very profitable strategies all trading real money in the millions/billions of dollars for years.

    how do you differentiate yourself? How will you market yourself?

    and don’t you say “my returns are so extraordinary” because rich people know that sustainable extraordinary returns require a real edge in infrastructure or information. Or the strategy isn’t scalable that it’s worth their time to put into their investment portfolio.
     
    #103     Jan 12, 2025
    Prospergain likes this.
  4. VOLdemort

    VOLdemort


    He made nothing for 8 months. Either the sample size is three contracts lifetime or it's fake. You can't win on 6/10 trades at 3:2 net and post this string of small losses.
     
    #104     Jan 12, 2025
    newwurldmn likes this.
  5. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    That's why marketing the returns is really important. He will need to explain why he has months of negative returns and why his strategy is different.

    Nassim Taleb is obviously able to explain away the months of negative returns in his Universa Investments fund, since he is buying deep out of the money options and gambling on severe market dislocations.
     
    #105     Jan 12, 2025
  6. Businessman

    Businessman

    If the stops are tight and/or it only trades fast markets like NFP and news events it is probably not very scalable.

    It's the kind of thing you just trade for your own account. Although I think small traders can definitely do better than a 1.07 Sharpe.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2025
    #106     Jan 12, 2025
  7. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    Or Occam's razor: his position size on each trade is not constant.
     
    #107     Jan 12, 2025
  8. Businessman

    Businessman

    I don't understand what you mean there, can you give an example?
     
    #108     Jan 12, 2025
  9. VOLdemort

    VOLdemort

    He's trading FX at 500x.
     
    #109     Jan 12, 2025
  10. Businessman

    Businessman

    I doubt he is actually using that much even if it's available to him.

    That would be trading $500 per pip on a $10000 account. A 20 pip loss and the account is gone.
     
    #110     Jan 12, 2025