...In fact, the breakdown of the 52 economists surveyed indicates that only two actually forecast a recession. And, those two forecasts are for an extremely mild recession. One forecast is for -0.3% real GDP growth in the first quarter followed by -0.4% in the second. The other (somewhat surprisingly from the National Association of Realtors) calls for -0.4% in the first quarter and -0.1% in the second. There are no forecasts of a severe recession... http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...estor&ArticleId=NS20080114082920TheBigPicture
So whats the big deal? Why panic and let short sellers wipe out your accounts? why not start bargain hunting? I repeated 1000 times on this forum: Recessions do not happen in election years. You can see how White house, Congress, Senate is hopping around pushing things for us. You can see how Feds are hell bent on rate cutting spree. Get it?
Can't be truer that that. What can economists do, really? They can look at what happened, and make some nice comments. They will try really hard to explain why that happened, but that's it.
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How you counting recession, since the government under-reports inflation you can have negative real growth but not showing recession.
My models are predicting recession starting in 2008 sometime, they are cycle based, unlike most economists's stuff, and keep in mind that economists are getting better, possibly, maybe not, at predicting the past all the time...