This is going to be my one last attempt to trade ES short-term. Basically, I will be exiting all my positions on Fridays. I will hold overnight but not over the weekend. I had tried in the past to day-trade ES but with minimal success, actually it was a failure over a long period. I figured out that successfully day-trading ES is hard and the majority will lose in the long-term. The big money is made by position players like B1S2. I do not think that I can psychologically handle that kind of drawdown. For example; he was still long on Feb 27th. It ended up working out for him but it would have hurt me psychologically. So now I'm looking at trading ES using a weekly support, resistance and value-range. Value Range is basically the price where most of the volume take place, sort of like MP. I went back and looked at the weekly data for few years and noticed that the price usually trades within the range of the previous week. The only times when that does not happen is after a big sell-off when the market bounces or towards the end of the up-trend. I will be put a limit-buy order and a sell-stop order on Sunday evening or limit-sell and buy-stop depending on the signal. It will be GTC order that will be cancelled or closed on Friday. I have tested for a small time frame: 3 months and the results have been promising. I did not test it over a long period because I saw no point to it. In the past I tested few strategies over 3-5 year period and the results were so good but when I put an actual trade it sucked. The stops are pretty small 2 points and the weekly range of S&P is 20+ points so the RR is good. Last week, my buy-limit was at 1496.75 and a stop at 1494.75. (To be honest here I did not trade actual money). On Mon, Tues, Wed I never thought that price might come to that point. When it bounced off 1506, I thought that was the low but on Thursday we saw a pretty decent sell-off and the low was 1496. If we had closed the trade on Friday it will have been good for 14-15 pts. depending on the price that you get. I'm going to be on vacation next week but I will try this after I come back. For next week: My buy- price is 1510 with a stop at 1508. I haven't put all the details like the scenarios when it will be invalid and as such and do not intend to at this time. For the time being, let's monitor this and see how it goes.
Last week was obviously wrong. Added one more condition to the test and looked at the results. I found that if you do not trade on Mondays, the results are much better. For this week, the buy price is 1515----Stop 1513. Let's see if this works this week.
I wish you success in your new journey; however, just b/c you failed at daytrading the ES does not mean it can't be done. I'm not sure how you define majority (51% or 99% or somewhere in between) but the market would not exist if the overwhelming majority constantly lose. Good luck with the new trading methodology.