As of today, 6th of August 2021, the S&P 500 have a high print of 4440,82 - which is a 30,86 % gain from the high in February 2020 last year prior to the Covid dump. Year to date the S&P500 is up 18,32 %. Average yearly gain over the last 21 years (since 2020) is 6,11 % with 2008 and 2002 being outlier years strongly down. Average yearly gain for the positive years is 15,73 % with the largest 3 years up being 29,60 %, 28,88 % and 26,38%. Historically and statistically, August and September are the weakest month for the S&P 500 index. Seeing how we're up more than average already and coupled with seasonal weakness it should not surprise anyone to see at least a pullback from these levels, but I would not simply short the market on that basis alone. Better to wait for a signal, IMO.
I agree - but a 10 - 20% pullback is likely very soon based on what I follow. Honestly that would be a healthy move and a buying opportunity. I dont - it is what it is. Stay on the plane but stand closest to the exits for sure.
i think there's a chance ES could get a pullback towards the 4350 area with some bad news or somthing. But don't think they'll let it drop much further than that. Would then expect the push towards maybe 4500 area
For seasonal weakness, a few months ago I made this (simplistic) seasonal analysis with spy data for week and month numbers:
%% Looks like the market is buy SPY @444 area. I did my part i sold my SPXLprofits.I like SPY better than HOOD, cut loss on HOOD, good thing it was starting size. SPY is a good benchmark, usually qqq does better/NOT this year. [ytd]............................................................................................................
Once we hit SPX 4440--longs, be careful out there. Good luck! ----> Once we break SPX 4440, longs & shorts, continue to be careful and use a simple straight ruler to determine the trend. Good luck!