Easily 5%+ all worries disappear when you can keep on spending without any worries.....going to be an incredible rally when the debt ceiling gets raised either a few hundred billion or a few trillion! They will not let the US default so guess what, buy the dips going into the next week or so and when its announced sell for a huge gain! ITS extremely simple. They are just playing the waiting game, in the last few days or maybe hours they will raise it and everything will be peaches and cream once again!
It will certainly be lifted, should it be lifted, NOOOOOO it should not be lifted, they should keep the debt ceiling where it is and immediately start cutting back on spending right this second!! They are talking about spending cuts and increasing taxes, but this wont happen, this is all talk, once they raise the debt ceiling they will push all that talk aside and wait for the next year or 2 to start start talking about raising the debt ceiling once again, its been lifted over 70 times in the last 40 years, do you honestly think they are going to stop raising it now, hahah NO WAY!
Quote from shortie: is anybody short volatility into the debt decision? what's your strategy/instrument of choice? I have some VXX bear call spreads (Aug Expiration) anybody else short the devil? went up 2% again today Looks like I am the only one short. We don't want it to be a crowded trade, do we? VXX +4% today again. at least today SPY dropped 1.5%, so it VXX action makes sense, unlike on the previous days.
Being short gold would be better than being short vol, IMO. I figure a quick crap-out to 1500 is a dunk shot. I'm short GDX (gold stocks), my usual vehicle. Good trade so far today, anyway.
Well the fear is that they cut the credit rating despite the ceiling being lifted right? It will come down to the credit decision, though the ceiling lift should give the market a pop, but not a pop to new highs.
Short-term reaction to the default risk being removed. Take a look at whatever day last week that rumor came out there was a deal; there was a 10-buck drop in seconds that day. Afterwards you could mosey back in, probably, since the fundamental case if anything got stronger today with the weak stats this morning. But a technical reaction to a deal is definitely built in, as that day showed.
Same thing over and over and over and over again! The market looks like its going to break out, everyone starts screaming 1370+ and 1450 by year end and the market just falls back down, this has happened at least 4-5 times already where the market breaks down, fear enters the market as if the SPX is going to break its March lows and out of no where the market rallies for 2 weeks straight erasing all those fears that the SPX is going to break down, what I am trying to say is BUY the dip and dont worry about the debt ceiling talks, everything is going to pass and when it does the markets will rally 3% in one day!
This is called summer chop. Earnings have been pretty good. Markets are all over the place and pretty disconnected from the readily apparant reality, especially the bond markets (and by "disconnected" I mean that investors are accepting very probable negative real returns for some currency benefits). P/E values are also still raesonably high so that could also be a reason why the markets don't really care earnings are good and instead focus on things that could bring down earnings in the future. Governments have created a pretty strange environment for everyone I think. I really have no idea where this market will go.