once again I really thought the housing sector was seeing a bottom.

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Jan 25, 2007.

  1. S2007S


    Come on, what is wrong with this picture. Homebuilders saying they do not see an "INKLING" of a rebound. Every article I read along with all the talking heads on cnbc are talking about a housing rebound going into the spring of 2007. What a joke.

    $1.5 Trillion worth of ARMs resetting this year. Should even get slower. 25% drop in the homebuilder stocks, 5-10% drop in housing prices in the next 12 months.

    U.S. home builder shares drop after difficult outlook

    NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. home builders tumbled on Thursday after a slew of companies reported weak quarterly results and said they did not see an inkling of a rebound in the U.S. housing market.

    The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index <.DJUSHB>, a yardstick that measures home builder performance, was off nearly 3 percent in early afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

    Shares of Beazer Homes USA (BZH.N: Quote, Profile , Research) led the decline, falling nearly 6 percent to $44.28, down $2.73, after the company on Thursday reported a loss after taking charges for sagging land values and its chief executive said the company did not see evidence of a housing rebound.

    That came on the heals of Meritage Homes (MTH.N: Quote, Profile , Research), which on Wednesday reported a 91 percent profit decline and said it expects 2007 will be a difficult year based on reduced backlog and order trends in the last few quarters. The company's shares fell 3 percent or $1.40 to $44.45 on Thursday.

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    Ryland Group Inc. (RYL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) on Wednesday reported a 46 decline in quarterly earnings and its shares were off about 3.3 percent or $1.84 to $54.13.
  2. it really makes sense why the fed, the media, etc are trying to talk up the home market as it is all based on perception. if you are a potential buyer - you want to get your best price. if you think its got more room to correct - you will wait. if you are a seller - you might not panic out and start dropping your offer which causes more panic...
    just like the stock market
  3. We're nowhere near a bottom. I've been saying this for a year.

    There is a 7 year historical period of incredible speculative excess to work off, and the first write offs of land bank deals have just begun.

    The housing market won't hit bottom and stabilize until the spring of 2009 at the earliest.

    I am in this business. Anyone who says otherwise is either in an incredibly niche market, or an ignoramus.
  4. Here is an interesting article about an area of CA that will get killed


    I read that the normal rate of notice of default (NOD) to foreclosure sale was in the 8-12% in bad times. Right now the rate is hovering at 33% for the 4th quarter NOD's.

    I still say, in my area, NOD's will increase roughly 200-300% for 2007 versus 2006 filings.
  5. piezoe


    The real estate/lending bust is just getting started. These cycles typically take a number of years to work themselves out. We just finished a period of very excessive liquidity, Greenspans gift, perhaps, to get those who offer unquestioning support of the Zionists into the Whitehouse. Regardless, this particular real estate bust promises to be worse than most. A concern is that central banks around the world may not be as helpful in propping up the dollar as in the past and that interest rates may have to rise in spite of a slowing economy due to housing collapse. We'll just have to wait and see.
  6. Hasn't even started.

    Over one TRILLION adjustables this year.

    The NAR will lie, cheat, etc, to make things look rosy. They are a SALES UNION.

    Guesss where most stats for existing sales come from?

    Bye bye RE
  7. Houses were pumped like a penny stock with a China 'story'.

    Shameless overlending and hype.

    I wish it could end very badly for those responsible, without collapsing the economy.