.. on a run

Discussion in 'Trading' started by empee, Feb 9, 2006.

  1. empee



    What do you guys do when you go on a run? I am up over 100% this year so far and the signals I'm getting are very clear, even when I stop I'm getting the direction right but its too tight (increased volatility). Normally, I would think it'd be better to get small since by the law of averages I have some losses coming, OTOH maybe the market has become very fertile for my style of trading so then I think I should continue to do it. (I should point out I was in cash during the sideways periods of 2005).. so how have other dealt with this? I'm on a serious run and getting excellent setups with excellent risk/reward skews.

    Just curious how other dealt with this, like I said mathematically you would probably get smaller since being on a run is statistically deviate, OTOH we all know markets aren't static and should I continue to pick while the picking is good?

    Im trading equities, options, QM, YM/NQ/ES/ER2, currency, bonds, etc. etc. I trade trend, reversals, mean reversion, spreads, etc. (basically everything)

  2. In regard to the question you asked, what does your system tell you to do?
  3. Well, you failed to mention prunejuice. Surely you trade that also.....:D
  4. Ebo


    Take a month off and experience St Baarts and Jamaica on a chartered yacht, that is of course 100% is more than 5 Grand!
  5. I agree, stop trading for a while. You just jinxed yourself by posting that you're on a big lucky streak. It's going to take at least a month for the jinx to wear off. Next time you're on a run, don't tell anybody, barely acknowledge it yourself. It's like when a baseball pitcher is throwing a no hitter, no one say's a word to him.

    I've got a feeling you're going to ignore this and trade anyway. So give us all an update next week on how you did, and be honest.

    ...Rennick out
  6. Trade bigger until you start to notice your winning streak drying up. When you are doing well you need to start pushing.

  7. This isnt good advice at all. He didnt say he was on a lucky streak, he said he is hitting it very well right now. If anything, he should size up until he starts seeing the good results start to turn south like 5yr said.

    The concept of luck or superstition in trading is ridiculous to me. It seems that those who believe in superstition in trading dont actually have a sound methodology to begin with. Therefore their winners and losers are basically random. If you trade this way and do hit a period where you can do no wrong, then certainly you are bound for a down period. But if you have defined edges and you know how and when to take advantage of them, then its all skill and you wouldnt need to feel like you are "jinxing" yourself by talking about it. A month or so ago, I was talking to a bunch of traders at my firm and I said "Man, I have only had one down day in the last 50 trading days". Someone said "Well, most likely tomorrow you'll have a down day because you said that". To make a long story short, now its one down day in the last 85 or so days. This is why I truly do not believe in superstition when it comes to the market. If you are trading well due to a good system/approach, keep going. Dont shy away. This is the time to shine and keep pushing it :)

  8. Waxie, um Michael is that you under am assumed name.?Keep tose Kachingas rolling in. 85-1 streak, you go big dog. Please let us know if your going to be knocking off someone in the Forbes billionaire list,, or maybe you'll be the first Trillionaire. Please share your methods with the group, and it better not be a lucky flipping coin.
    On a more serious note, has anyone seen the new morning chic on CNBC, Erin Brunette....... habbababoom!!!

    ....Rennick out

    ps. to the author of this thread, seriously don't listen to Waxie, go to an Indian Shamen to get unjinxed.
  9. Bro, you gave bad advice. What else can I say. I dont really care if you dont believe me, I post my P&L everyday on the P&L thread and have been for awhile. I have zero reasons to lie to someone I dont even know :D.

    When someone is hitting it good in the market, they shouldnt stop because of fear that they've been "lucky" unless thats what happened. Good traders look to their skill as the reasons for their success. Sure, maybe a good or bad fill here and there is luck but over the long run, good traders make great money and not so good traders dont.

    Maybe you should spend more time learning to improve your trading game rather than giving out bad advice here.

  10. Go to an airport with wi-fi and trade from there. When it gets slow, travel to another airport with wi-fi and trade some more.

    This is a great vacation and a wonderful way to rack up the miles.
    #10     Feb 10, 2006