On 10-case geometry and beyond

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Simples, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. Sprout

    Sprout

    That's perfect. Just extend your trendlines out from other the short and long side. That will give you context on the open, the dominant leg, the close, the slope and direction of the tape. With this existing bar draw a lateral. Price has to close beyond this boundary on increasing volume to take the trade. High volatility trend segment, reversals bar by bar to intrabar. Depends on the doji. In reality we need to be on the DOM with T&S to trade intrabar.
    Equites are a bit difficult in that they gap frequently. It requires HRE mental on the open de-gapping. That's a workout.
    Now if you draw your tapes, they give leading indication,...
     
    #41     Jul 7, 2017
    Simples and dratsum like this.
  2. Simples

    Simples

    dk_pndora_eod_2017_7_7_e.png

    XB/XR are stochastic movements between yellow constipation, violet revulsion and the occational expansion of blueness in any direction. :)

    Avoided adding extra lines as it'll just make it harder to make, read and maintain.
     
    #42     Jul 7, 2017
    dratsum likes this.
  3. Sprout

    Sprout

    Yes.
    If you make them more transparent to balance everything else.
    Annotate the Peaks of Volume.

    The short to extend is the one that recycles Bar9 pt1 and the current bar high. Now you have zones for the next day's bar. The open sets your pt1, chill until the close. Where it is in the zones in relation to the previous bar against the background of current volume will be very clear. With timely action tape these highs and lows as the pt3's for your first trend of the day, volume will be logged. The Price case is identified, turns are ID'd. We begin to annotate volume.

    Unless dominant volume arrives to extend VE.
    With the presence of the OB the anticipated price action is a A-turn inside bar, either sym, ftp, fbp or hitch, starting a non-Dom traverse back to the RTL. At any moment this A-turn could turn to C turn with the rise of short volume.

    When Price Action XO the establish green RTL with an Increase in short volume, sentiment will have changed. We'd then be on the Dominant traverse of the new short channel bounds being expanded by this dominant traverse. Increased volume pace equals lower risk due to the momentum of the directional movement. Like all things it has an inertia.

    The opposite is true on long channel symmetry.

    Otherwise we are on the lookout for dominant volume returning in the form of a FBO as price bounces off the RTL. (B-Turn).


    Since you are monitoring the day, the next timeframe that would be useful is the 30min.
    With 6 - 30min blocks, we can see in the first 1/2 of the day whether the volume pace will be incr or decr volume compared to the prorated bar volume - PRV.

    Otherwise, to go up a trading fractal to trading weeklies. The dailies then become your faster fractal to carve turns within.

    The PRV tool is the invention of the honorable Jack Hershey. Simple and Insightful for traders who trade 5min bars.

    For EOD traders, it would be useful to introduce the scoring system used by Jack.

    It is a binary vector system.
    +Price is 1,
    -price is 0,
    +Vol is 1,
    -Vol is 0,
    +A/D is 1,
    -A/D is 0.

    It's a way to contextualize the high's and low's of a stock price cycle as a repeating sine wave. The three variables permutations gives 8 values, a cycle of stock price migrating in a sequential fashion 7 to 0.

    However to go down that road at this moment is premature. We can return to that topic. It's better to ground the principals introduced thus far. It's easy to forget one of the pieces. That gives and incorrect result. One can always tell, for the thoughts of confusion cloud clarity, confidence, support and comfort leave for the next party while fear and anxiety decide to crash and stay way longer than welcomed.

    Just stop, take a breath, go back over one's work and look for alternatives in context that would have been missed. Debriefing is the place where one makes their money. When the markets are open is when we get paid. The earned insights by building and supporting one own mastery in the markets is an ever expanding endeavor. Do thorough and complete work.

    The market is orderly and migrates in an anticipatory manner. Much to their protest, any contradictory thoughts are held by the players of the losing hand. Their approach to the markets is based on an incomplete dataset.
     
    #43     Jul 7, 2017
    Simples likes this.
  4. Simples

    Simples

    My current TF is EOD-bars setting triggers after close, so more familiar with daily bars and up, though would want to someday do faster TFs I'm not setup for that now. If it's not too complicating though, could make a shot at it (curious), as I believe BigCharts can provide faster TF charts, and it'd continue to be decoupled from my other setup.

    Annotations beginning with identifying peaks from a neutral standpoint:

    dk_pndora_eod_2017_7_7_g.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2017
    #44     Jul 8, 2017
  5. Sprout

    Sprout

    Peaks and troughs are identified by the comparison to the previous bar.

    With the annotation theme you have with the volume bars, if you color the volume annotation to match the volume bar, simplicity arises. ie black peak P, red peak R, same with troughs. Each volume bar would be a Peak or Trough. The convention is to use tiny sloped lines above the bar to showing increasing volume.

    Also draw your potential larger short channel by recycling pt1 and using Jul 7 High as the new pt3.

    The caveat is that this method works in any market, any timeframe provided that sufficient liquidity exists.

    For equities, they need to be screened by a specific criteria. Otherwise noise is introduced where none need exist.

    Since we didn't start at screening for High Quality stocks, we'll frame this as an exercise and drill. The screen is the first & essential step in risk management. By using the tools outlined so far, we create a backdrop of context by which to evaluate current Price Action.

    Based on the annotations you have built so far, there are multiple scenarios that can happen on the next bar. We are looking for Continue and for Change.

    Here are the four possibilites:
    If volume is increasing AND price is increasing, anticipate ____
    If volume is increasing AND price is decreasing, anticipate _____
    If volume is decreasing AND price is increasing, anticipate ____
    If volume is decreasing AND price is decreasing, anticipate ____



    also, the other way

    If price is increasing AND volume is increasing, anticipate ____
    If price is increasing AND volume is decreasing, anticipate ____
    If price is decreasing AND volume is increasing, anticipate ____
    If price is decreasing AND volume is decreasing, anticipate ____





     
    #45     Jul 8, 2017
    Simples likes this.
  6. Simples

    Simples

    If volume is increasing AND price is increasing, anticipate ____Continue
    If volume is increasing AND price is decreasing, anticipate _____Change
    If volume is decreasing AND price is increasing, anticipate ____Change

    If volume is decreasing AND price is decreasing, anticipate ____Continue

    also, the other way

    If price is increasing AND volume is increasing, anticipate ____Continue
    If price is increasing AND volume is decreasing, anticipate ____Change
    If price is decreasing AND volume is increasing, anticipate ____Change
    If price is decreasing AND volume is decreasing, anticipate ____Continue


    Re-arranged to a matrix of knows and unknowns to aid inductive reasoning:

    dk_pndora_eod_2017_7_7_i.png
     
    #46     Jul 8, 2017
  7. Sprout

    Sprout

    Two of the four are correct.
    Two of the next set are correct.

    Build on what you know, as you work the logic out.

    Shifting focus;

    The first r2r, we only see 2r in this chart, bar 8,9. The next short bar 11,15,16,... etc.

    The first b2b, bar 18,19. Then the 24th where the trend would have continued with incr long volume. Instead, the bears showed up, or just no buyers.

    The b2b happened on bar 30, 31. It's inverted because some say that's how large orders get absorbed across bars when the order/s spans multiple bars to fill, etc. I don't really know. I just know from experience what I see as the EOB artifact isn't necessary the accurate representation of the OOE. Insight comes from observing exactly how the bar was built.

    Bar 31 is the pt2 of the green. Bar 29 was the FTT of the first short channel that came into view on this chart. Which is also the pt2 of the larger short channel with pt3 at bar14.

    b2b and r2r are always there as the dominant shift from decr vol to incr vol in the continued price direction. Whether the trend completes itself or is interrupted by resurgence of dominance in the opposite price direction.

    You are building to have an informed opinion based on the granularity of the market system of operation. Form an anticipatory text of what you think the next bar will do based on observable measures of volume as that bar is built. Based on the possibilities, There is a momentary doji on every bar.

    Where then can price go from this pivot point? What do you need to see in volume for this to be true?
    Else,...

    The market works on negative logic.

     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2017
    #47     Jul 8, 2017
    Simples likes this.
  8. Simples

    Simples




    dk_pndora_eod_2017_7_7_j.png
    Inversion hides true PV-pressure direction. Trends within opposing trends take turns at being non-DOM. The closer to HRE and left edge the less certainty.

    Anticipations:
    • latest OB -> next bar A-Turn, IB and less volatility, possible traversal to RTL in next or forthcoming bars
    • latest 2 VE's on increased volume -> increasing strength upwards, need close above latest VB/possible Latteral for confirmation of direction
    • possible latest 2b with rising volume -> strength, OB support to hold, larger BO to upside, 7 Jul or OB-RTL to form an accelerated P3
    • if possible 2r next bar -> IB, return of some negativity, possible BO of RTL
    • if close below OB -> FTT negating VEs but may still be within RTL
    • if close below RTL -> PBO, short-term resumption of bearishness below OB
    • overall increasing black volume within latest green Traversal -> overall increase of volatility

    Next bar:
    Anticipating 2r next bar, which could close below latest close, below pivot.
    If on low PRV = strength, less chance for new P3 forming
    If on high PRV = uncertain, rising red volume

    While close above pivot and increasing PRV = long
    While close below pivot or decreasing PRV = start looking for exits
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
    #48     Jul 9, 2017
  9. Simples

    Simples

    If volume is increasing AND price is increasing => anticipate Continue
    If volume is increasing AND price is decreasing => anticipate Change
    If volume is decreasing AND price is increasing => anticipate Continue
    If volume is decreasing AND price is decreasing => anticipate Change
    If price is increasing AND volume is increasing => anticipate Continue
    If price is increasing AND volume is decreasing => anticipate Continue
    If price is decreasing AND volume is increasing => anticipate Change
    If price is decreasing AND volume is decreasing => anticipate Change
     
    #49     Jul 9, 2017
  10. Sprout

    Sprout

    Well done!

    Order the list in sequence of possibilities, two sort orders. One with the volume measure as the first column. The other as the price case as the first column. When the bar builds notice how the bar built, which came first the High or Low, what was volume when that happened? What did volume and price do from this point?

    As the bar builds, the possibilities exclude themselves, the forks come and go, as we arrive to a sense of knowing as there is the only possibility that has now actualized in front of you. This gives a fresh datapoint to add to our dataset. Our job is to listen and see, what came before, what's happening now and what must come next -WMCN.

    The last green traverse that you added create the context by which accelerating pace will still be true, (if price is bound by the rtl and pushes the VE out). Good thinking.

    Anticipating is a very different process and experience than predicting. One stays dynamic and operates in the now. The other excludes all the possibilities that are happening now, instead only looking to confirm one.

    The preparations for each operate from different paradigms.

    So now we have an idea of each possibility, what will the trend (tape, traverse, channel) do if that particular case was true?

    Once true, when non true?

    edit:
    The recent list you posted is still half true. It's important to work this out for yourself.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
    #50     Jul 9, 2017
    Simples likes this.