Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Simples, Jul 3, 2017.
What's the story here?
Interesting. How are you painting the bars?
In terms of what must come next. The most recent short trend has progressed into a accelerated Dominant traverse of a short channel with points 1, 2, 3 defined. Three things on deck, IB, VE or FTT. One has supporting volume to continue the Dominant traverse short breaking the low, one will reverse in the opposite direction and break the high of the previous bar. The third is what contains both PA within the range of the previous bar for as long as it can before revealing itself of which way it will truly break-out. Frequently, this BO becomes a FBO if PA brings price back within the previous bar's range.
Setting up Bookmarks on either end of the range as well as imaginary RTL's on this bar will create zones of confidence as the current bar builds as to which of the above scenarios are coming into Dominance. More importantly, it will show the shift in Dominance as the bar builds.
Also, as counter-intuitive this might seem, having the current bar build in the center of the chart makes a subtle difference in bias.
The bias is one of perceptual influence that the past has on the future coming into the present.
edit: Although the methodology makes frequent mention of the RTL, that's not the zone to experience consistent profits. The zone for consistent profits is having attention on the developing LTL. It's a transition many fail to make for to 'see' it, one must 'see' empty space as having utility. This distinction comes into easier view as one spends more time on the DOM, T&S and tick charts. These are finer tools that have their own center of gravity and can pull one in by forgetting the relevance and function of larger contexts created by the use of annotating tapes/traverses/channels on longer timeframes. One of the valuable things to discern from the activity on the DOM and T&S is that market orders move the market.
The bars are an experiment in NT painting bars by code (DrawRectangle and such functions). Grey bars on non-DOM/decreasing volume. Red/green/black bars on increasing volume selling/buying/strong buying. Thickness according to various factors of DOM (what we know that we know like Lateral BO). Green/red area above/below close.
I believe it shows where there's effort, direction of bars of effort and areas within bars with conflicting effort. When you connect the colors, patterns of supply/demand emerge and is easier to see. I don't use it for trading, but think it can serve as learning / idea tool.
Thought I'd post here to first say hello to the remaining JH cronies/minions/kool-aid drinkers/believers/traders and to just give an overall thanks to all involved for the JH stuff!!
As JH often said of his methods, "you know that you know".
Today was my epiphany that I know that I know.
Here's my 4 minute trading chart of Russell 2000 for today. It was annotated and traded in real time. A near 60 point linear range today. Do I dare say I captured 87% of that linear range? X3 contracts? Nah... that would mean I captured 261% of the daily linear range, clearly impossible. I also played point, click, point, click with NQ today, but I felt Russell would be "safest" for me today and where I spent most of my time since Im "rusty" with REAL volatility.
Now Im not here to toot my horn. I just want to remind that 3x Daily ATR is doable by just following the JH guidelines, in whatever way makes sense for your own way of trading.
There is a thread here in ET called "Getting down and dirty is where the rubber meets the road". It has a lot of insight, just saying. And It helped me to "know". Here's a link... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ty-is-where-the-rubber-meets-the-road.195287/
Anyway, Im not asking for critique of my annotations, or the like. If you have questions that you think I may be able to help you answer for yourself, I'll be happy to give my insights. On the chart, the Blue channel began on Jan 24th or 29th depending on guassian interpretation, and was accelerated on Friday. The yellow hz lines above are naked POCs, iow, nothing to do with JH. FWIW, I had 20 trades in RTY today.
Hope y'all are doing well!
Congratulations and thank you for posting your chart.
Can you kindly walk us through some of your trades and state the reasons for each?
It is likely that you agree that the Gaussian's on your chart do not adhere to the guidelines which were posted by the late JH or Spydertrader. Hence it is difficult to determine where you were likely to short the market and subsequently reverse or exit your positions.
Here is early morning. I didn't trade the opening bell. Was getting bearings in all the instruments I follow. I've added some comments, so lets be clear...the chart has now been modified IN HINDSIGHT. But much of my mods relate to your comment about NOT adhering to gaussian guidelines. Not as bad as you seem to think anyway.
While I know I would lose the fight, I do take exception to the remark. I am the master of fractal jumping. As such, one of the tricks I learned, which works FOR ME, is to use gaussian tapes, and sometimes traverses. Longer term just confuses me, unless there is a well-defined, easily recognized through gaussian "JH channel". So given that I do not have 3 levels of gaussian on my screen, I do not adhere. But what I do with tapes and traverses, works for me, and for the mostpart, is within the "guidelines", but not always in real time. As long as we all get to the same conclusion/answer/place, all is good!
This morning, the slalom against the RTL of the accelerated blue was a nemesis... until the somewhat sloppy R2R around 8:15. That trade then lasted about an hour, before reversing on non-dom, still within BO possibility of the blue. Around 10am pst, dom/non-dom became crystal to me.
Thank you for posting a few of your trades. No offense was intended in any way. Usually trading such strong trending sessions as today's via only the tape, can be highly problematic as lack of context (i.e. identification of higher fractals) may result in taking the wrong trades.
Great idea to bring up Jack Hershey's method at this time, when most people are confused by the markets, even more than usually
Nice to see you lurking around!
Yea. Let "them" say what they will about JH and his stuff. When applied appropriately for ones trading style and experience, IF ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ELSE, the trader will stay out of trouble. That's much different than staying on the right side of the market, but a very important aspect of the teachings. Interesting times indeed!
I've concluded some work that needed done, and will be continuing working on the 10-case geometry and beyond in order to assist my own understanding, integration and needs for discovery.
The 10 cases may be summarized like this (feel free to provide corrections/additions/debriefs):
Some "annotations" above are meant to provoke thought, reflection and integration. Ie. we see there is "breath" in the 10-case geometry itself, with volatility ranging from contraction to expansion in 2 dimensions, as well as possible short-term anticipations for the next bars. The important parts are in the details and relationships above, but with no finalized conclusions (these are just idealized drafts of ideas).
Separate names with a comma.