On 10-case geometry and beyond

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Simples, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. Sprout

    Sprout

    I did state this in my reply to you:
    "I understand we can both be looking at the same data and coming up with entirely different conclusions. I respect that. I also respect you and my intention is that my words will reflect that there is more to realize with Jack's work and not anything else that was not intended."

    In my replies to you, I've expressed my appreciation and gratitude towards you, multiple times. If there's anything you should be left with in our interaction it is that.
     
    #101     Jul 20, 2017
    dartmus likes this.
  2. Simples

    Simples

    Both one and the other may hold true, or be successfully utilized by someone somehow. Merely attempting to convince others is futile CW. Showing them the stream, to experience and act on by themselves, there's a chance of transference. That's a gift, and not to be trampled upon. Please remain open to potential pearls.

     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2017
    #102     Jul 21, 2017
    dartmus and Sprout like this.
  3. Simples

    Simples

    Started on monthly chart. Didn't draw the smaller trendlines at top yet, though long-term looks like potential for acceleration (after a nasty pullback in Q3 2015). Shorter-term trendlines may reveal when that may no longer be true.

    us_qqq_eom_2017_7_29_a.png

    Pretty sloppy work after a shortish vacation, but interesting as background.
     
    #103     Jul 28, 2017
  4. Simples

    Simples

    AAPL from 2016, identifying P-turns from volume together with pricetrends and extensions of P3's:

    us_aapl_eod_2016_10_14.png
     
    #104     Jul 29, 2017
  5. Simples

    Simples

    QQQ EOD chart. Expecting bottom in next bar (15.8) around/above 141-142, next bar after that (16.8) to stop ~144.5 before continued acceleration to upside. However, PA violating RTLs or VE bear-case would invalidate that "just-for-fun" guess. For bullcase to be intact price should establish above 145 / bear RTL within just beyond 5-7 trading days, the faster the better, but also with rising black volume. Notice decreasing red volume since Jun, though unless black volume overtakes soon, may still provide some trouble for longs.

    us_qqq_eod_2017_8_15_a.png

    Max pain scenario with bull intact (volatility exaggerated due to uncertainty):
    us_qqq_eod_2017_8_15_b.png

    More black volume and more volatility to upside will signal bullishness (ofc), especially if blasting through 146 on huge volatility and black volume.
     
    #105     Aug 14, 2017
  6. You contradicted yourself.
     
    #106     Aug 15, 2017
  7. Simples

    Simples

    Yes. They're both wrong I think.

    UPDATE: Above scenario is very bullish. A more moderate scenario would be test down to approx. 139 and rebound there, though that would start challenging the lower green RTL (much less bullish = sideways+up), though would from recent 3 bars expect support to hold at 141.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2017
    #107     Aug 15, 2017
  8. stepan7

    stepan7

    Closer look:

    QQQ (Daily)  2_27_2017 - 8_28_2017.jpg

    Big picture:

    QQQ (Daily)  2_11_2015 - 8_28_2017.jpg
     
    #108     Aug 29, 2017
    Simples likes this.
  9. Simples

    Simples

    Nice chart! 2 year chart period provides a better perspective it seems.

    @stepan7 : Do your price/volume bar-colors help you interpret the chart?

    Been busy developing on new system. Seems markets are stuck in sideways development, which can still be bullish and reserves some energy for more momentum upwards. However, latest bear trend is also developing, so more correction shouldn't be surprising either.. It does seem to peter out lately though, using time.

    Very simple current situation. Negative volume petering out, but waiting for new black volume to resume. MACD shows new potential too, but still not broken out:

    1.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2017
    #109     Aug 29, 2017
  10. stepan7

    stepan7

    Yes. Tremendously.

    QQQ (Daily)  3_30_2017 - 8_30_2017.jpg
     
    #110     Aug 30, 2017
    Simples likes this.