I dont understand that data in the chart to be honest which is why I went to moving average of total cases and the COVID 7 day moving average of new cases overalll that I quoted shows a much larger spike in Florida than in Vermont. Taking into account the differences in the sizes of the states and population density, it makes sense that Florida would by any metric have a larger spike but add to that the more lax attitude in Florida towards preventive measures. Vaccines are adaptive immunity tools, but helping people fight the virus off quicker would reduce the viral loads being exposed to other people. Florida is still over 63% vaccinated so it is not like the state is running around unvaccinated en masse.
Americans used to understand we have to fight contagious diseases. What happened? https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article257017547.html When my fellow baby boomers had children in elementary school, the classroom was often referred to as a petri dish where every known contagion was circulating. Kids brought it all home, and home became its own petri dish of contagious diseases. The adults took the contagions to work. Teachers encouraged parents to keep their sick children at home to protect their classmates and stop the spread. Employers urged the sick to protect their co-workers, take their sick leave and stay at home. The phenomenon of contagion seemed to be grasped by the vast majority. What happened? How, in a substantial segment of society, did we lose our understanding of contagion? How, in a substantial segment of society, did the personal responsibility to protect others be replaced by the “freedom” to endanger others? Voluntarily staying home — a matter of personal responsibility — was not the only mitigating measure. Schools remained open but only the vaccinated could attend, and the early years classroom became the gatekeeper for preventing disease spread. Smallpox vaccines were still given. Mandated polio, measles, mumps and rubella vaccines eliminated these terrible diseases. Without question, these were grand advances for the sciences and scientifically-informed public health policy. Today, once again, science has done its part and public health policy is scientifically informed. Missing is a grasp of contagion and concern for others in a significant segment of society. Books have been written and studies have been conducted that corroborate an undercurrent of related sentiments: anti-science, anti-expertise and anti-intellectualism, which can be encapsulated under the recycled rubric of the “dumbing down of America.” These sentiments are accompanied by a national empathy deficit and a trust deficit in government and institutions. These sentiments appear most associated with a corrosive political ideology. Once-trusted news outlets now present alternative realities that deepen the distrust. The public is left vulnerable to misinformation and conspiracy theory. Perhaps the most important trend is the empathy deficit for our fellow man when we need it most. One often hears policy positions justified by claims such as, “I’m entitled to my opinion” — and the implication is that opinion is as good as fact. Intelligent discourse is blunted. What about religious exemptions? Christian Scientists have a longstanding, legitimate claim to religious exemption. It’s in their scripture and in their practice. Some others attempt to hide behind religion, but their previous acceptance of the flu and MMR vaccines exposes the lie. The rationalizations are boundless. What can be done? It’s easy to concentrate on the negative even when hundreds of millions have been vaccinated, long lines wait hours for COVID-19 tests, and health care professionals stand tall. These represent the majority who grasp contagion and are exercising personal responsibility. They represent hope. But the minority has been immunized against appeals from scientists, experts and intellectuals. The result is that much needed collective action will be stunted by distrust in government and institutions. What’s the prognosis? The minority’s actions lead to overextended hospitals affecting all and for incalculable harm mostly to themselves. Returning the effects to manageable levels can only come from of the majority’s sustained efforts.
There's a statistical explanation that's been posted by myself in a few threads here. I don't feel like going into the details again but will post a short video below of the statistical explanation plus a few recent DFR charts of Vermont Covid numbers. Simply, it's something that happens to a country, state, or region that's highly vaccinated and when media / individuals put too much emphasis on "case counts (infections)" instead of concentrating on Hospitalization, ICU Admission, and Deaths. ---------- The statistical explanation is called Base Rate Fallacy. When provided with both individuating information, which is specific to a certain person or event, and base rate information, which is objective, statistical information, we tend to assign greater value to the specific information and often ignore the base rate information altogether. This is referred to as the base rate fallacy, or base rate neglect. ---------- With the above said and considering I've been studying Vermont Covid numbers very closely (I have their DFR data) for many months now. Here's a recent look as of January 4th, 2022. Vermont's Covid Case Numbers (we really shouldn't be looking at case counts but the media loves case counts) Vermont's Covid Hospitalizations (Reality check and most ignore) Vermont's Covid Deaths Summary, vaccines are working very well in Vermont in preventing Hospitalization, ICU Admission, and Death while the case count of infections is shooting upwards for both vaccinated and not vaccinated. Yet, it's obvious that Vermonters that are not vaccinated are taking a greater risk in this Pandemic in comparison to those that are vaccinated. Base Rate Fallacy, so far, has played out in every high vaccinated country to verify that vaccination reaches a threshold that most case counts will eventually be those that are vaccinated while most Hospitalization, ICU Admissions and Deaths will be those not vaccinated. The United States as a whole has not reached that threshold but its getting closer but we do have states like Vermont to see Base Rate Fallacy in all of its glory. wrbtrader
I'd wait another month before drawing conclusions on breakthrough rates, as your charts are a six week sample with an inherent lag.
I only posted the most recent charts...instead of posting charts for every single month that I've accumulated for each state in the Northeast, South Dakota, Illinois, Kentucky, and Québec Canada including Pediatric Hospitalization Data. Simply, a lot more than "six week sample". Yet, most here at the forum aren't too interested in all the charts I've been posting since the beginning of the Pandemic nor interested in any associated statistical data. Yet, if you're interested in the past data beyond 6 weeks... https://dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid-19/modeling Regardless, I'm sure you've noticed that many anti-vaxxers have already drawn their conclusions from "case counts" while ignoring the Hospitalization, ICU Admission, and Deaths since vaccinations began. wrbtrader
People can't receive protection (from Omicron) by being infected with Omicron if they died from Delta. Ask those 836K+ that are dead. Or the 600K Republican subset. Let me know if they reply. 99.9% of those under 60yo and fully vaxxed survive. 97% of those over 60yo and fully vaxxed survive. An increase in R0 is correlated to a reduction in severity in viral mutations. https://www.mass.gov/news/breakthro...ted-individuals-dont-result-in-severe-illness
Deaths from Delta in TX and vaxxed were 0.6% (all ages). That's Delta, pre-Omicron. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/24/coronavirus-texas-deaths-under-60/