My stops are dictated by where price is when I enter, not by me. I can control the size I trade, and therefore, my risk. But the market tells me where to get out, and that is where I set my stop, just as it tells me when to get in. If you were a buyer tonight at 98.75 or better, a 2 point stop it would be. Any higher, you'd need to think about what makes sense based on the market.
Oppps.... I goofed! I got a bit confused with my post because I thought this was the thread where Emini was e-mailing me personally in a private thread. Once I saw this post from 40D, I realized that this is actually e-mini's public journal... so you didn't need a reply from me personally! ops:
Ah... great reply! (and at least some good came out of my blunder.... ) A long at 98.75 would be so aggressive. There is that slightly higher low on the 1 minute, but given the extremely low volume, I have no idea how this all works during a Sunday trading session. I would like to see price re-enter that range above 4201, but of course this would require a stop all the way down to below 97, so more confirmation is more of a price risk (got this from Mamis). I can see 40D that you like a very small price risk and hence very little confirmation.... how often are you getting stopped out? Given a more important level you are probably more sure, but are you doing better than 75% perhaps? I remember you said months ago when you were posting last that you were usually good for at least a few points and could get out BE or better most times... is this still the case?
That higher low is there no matter what the bar interval, the question is did you see it in real time? And if you did, do you have a plan that allows you to act on it? If you didn't see it in real time, then many of the higher lows and lower highs that I act on will be invisible to you if you are trying to find it based on an OHLC bar or candlestick. I'm not saying that someone can't trade based on bars and candles. I have a 5 minute bar interval chart open throughout the day. But when price gets to a level I'm interested in, I'm watching it tick by tick, and I do not need a bar of any interval to close or for the extreme of a particular bar to be exceeded in order to act. That is me, and all of this is just my opinion.
Perfect explanation, and this of course jives exactly with what Db continuously says about those things being in the market which are irrespective of how one chooses to display/summarize the transactions. Not to hijack emini's journal any further, but as a final note, I am moving forward with doing careful analysis of these important levels as this seems to be the basis of everything (as you say though, those HH's, HL's, etc, will not be showing up in the 1 minute charts for backtesting, but they certainly will be there if price does take off/reverse from an important level). I have studied the charts you posted in the summer/fall of 2013, but since you are around now, if you'd like to throw up some current charts in either Db's threads or my journal of levels that you are watching, I would enjoy following along. Just as emini has done here, I will be posting the prep to my journal as well with the levels that I am seeing and hopefully this will get me back on track once and for all.
In your last chart 4195 is indeed a both a double top and LH. Price made a LL then made the 1st LH which was tested for 2nd chance entry as a double top.
I found today to be extremely interesting. I would like to make a contribution to the topic of observation. Would it be easier to follow if I posted the observations in segments or throw it all out there in one shot? If anyone is following let me know what's easier.