One more thing while Thursday is still fresh, about this pattern/statistics business vs trader behavior. With regard to that final push up to the limit, one can make a pattern of this and do all sorts of statistical analysis in order to determine the probabilities of success if one exits -- and, if so, where -- or one sticks with it. This analysis, if done, might become second nature so that the trader doesn't even have to think about it much, if at all. Or one can say to himself "what are those traders who just added to their positions, or initiated positions, going to do if price chokes at its apogee? Are they just going to sit there on a position that is rapidly becoming a loser (many will) or are they going to bail? (as there is no float in futures, putting these contracts back on the market isn't going to fuel a selling panic in and of itself, but the fact of the selling and of the lower high just might) And if they bail, what are the footprints of this? What do I look for?" These footprints will at least entail a break of the stride and probably a lower high. And if all of this takes place at the limit, one doesn't require much calculation -- though he's free to engage in that if he needs to -- to see that there are very likely opportunities on the short side here. This again illustrates the point I've tried to make so many times with regard to trading patterns vs the behavior that creates the patterns.
Very good stuff. Hopefully my efforts will entice more of your participation where we can actually have constructive conversations/discussion versus some of the other stuff that goes on on these boards. I value your insights because to me it makes more sense than other trading methods.
If you're past the fear, the rest of it is just assembling the Erector Set. Otherwise you're looking at perhaps years of false starts.
Pace isn't a factor in my trading method. I imagine it's because I developed my ideas from studying static charts. I agree that in real time while the chart's moving, it's easy to get influenced by pace and fall prey to negative behaviors like hesitating to put on a valid trade because it feels "scary" or chasing price because it moves quickly. If pace is a factor in your trading then static charts will be of little use and replay/sim will be critical. The other problem with static charts is that unless you scroll to the right edge to do your analyses, you will very likely experience bias where you'll see all the successful moves and literally be blind to the failures.
I am trying to think of an efficient way I can post my commentary or recap of what I was seeing. I was really focused so it's a lot haha. I'd rather spend my time at the moment doing more replay then writing paragraphs. There was a ton of good things that happened today and to type it all out would take a decent amount of time. I'll figure it out though. My one issue was trying to spot an initial point to focus on in terms of context. Other than that if I could describe the character of the day it would be break thru and test or retest (swing points and 50%). Plenty of ops just watching for that type of action. I'm wondering if it makes more sense to just do the work and come back with the final product?
Real quick sort of generic recap. Here's the 1min with some areas of interest and then the line chart. I didn't talk a lot about pace just trying to keep it simple at the moment. I do notice that whenever there are sharp surges price tends to "recoil" and based on that recoil you can sort of get an idea who's got the ball. For example if that recoil dies out halfway back etc. I'm sure many if not all of saw these moves.
Sorry I haven't posted much of anything been busy with the holidays approaching. A few things. I have noticed some interesting behaviors of price movement and I've also noticed many things where without the use of a "slower" interval can get confusing. One thing that I find interesting with the line chart is when traders intentions are pretty blatant the line has a much smoother flow to it where as when traders seem unsure (don't know if that's the proper word to describe it) the chart gets choppy with lots of waves overlapping even if price's general movement is in one direction. So price can be moving let's say down however the incursions of the opposing waves are "deep" and frequent. Also the pace of this type of movement is almost frantic to point where it almost makes me anxious lol. Now sometimes the pace of "smoother" flow is sometimes fairly rapid but it makes more sense or the intentions of the traders regardless of speed is far more clear. I suppose that's the difference btw trading trending movement versus chop lol. I see all sorts of things like this just not sure what to do with it yet. My focus now is trying to hunker down and patiently wait for a test of a previous price level and see if I can start to formulate a strategy surrounding those levels. It's my assumption that everything will make even more sense and behavior in time easier to read by waiting as opposed to trading a more free flowing SLA approach. Some trades will be missed that win (which would be in hindsight) but getting caught in chop especially watching a faster interval is just awful lol. I am finding thinking as a buyer or a seller is helping with patience. If I am looking to buy at what price(s) would it make sense to do so. Would I buy anything at it's highest price (sneakers, cars, whatever) or would I wait for price to come down/a sale/discount etc. same for the sell side. Just bc there is a RET after a new high doesn't necessarily mean I have to buy. Where is that RET in the grand scheme of things? I am also considering the use of the tickq to help with trading s/r
areas of interest for tomorrow. 4225-26 4201 4190 4165-69 4140 We've traded above 26 as high as 33.75 and recently below 01 as low as 97. We'll see what the rest of the overnight brings. Goal is to plan trades in advance, execute, manage and deal with whatever the results may be.
hey emini... i took the liberty of putting your levels on my hourly chart and it looks good. in blue i have that level marked which i see you also added at the end at 33. but also higher up is the all important level of 4273 if we do make it up that high. man that was a perfect trade on friday that i unfortunately missed. and yes, i was watching live as we hit 97 but had a fairly strong rally up from there, so no selling interest at the moment. i'm working through that wyckoff file you gave me which is great! man i love reading the stuff from Db... i love the way he writes and his thinking is spot on! i'd like to think this is sinking in even better, but this will only be reflected in the P&L. i like how the most recent stuff from 40D has the idea that he keeps his stop loss very tight, and Db even backed this up with the quote from Teresa Lo... so this really helps hone in on exactly how to trade and i guess i gotta dig deeper into the lower time frame chart again, but only at the important levels. just as i'm about to send this over, i also have to draw in that little rectangle. i'm noticing a lot of trading going on in this range, and hence the upper and lower limits of this range/box may prove to be important... EDIT: When I originally posted this e-mini, I thought this was the private thread where we were emailing each other and hence I wanted to reply. But now I see that this is your public journal and since 40D already replied, I didn't want to delete my post. So I'm leaving it here but I didn't mean to muddy your journal with my chart and thoughts so please accept my apology.