OMG I can't believe this fallacy still exists in trading!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by wxytrader, Oct 14, 2023.

  1. rb7

    rb7

    Lol...
    I'd bet you're a young loser living in his parent's basement.
    You're so pathetic.
    That's the beauty of the virtual world. You can be anything you want.

    Say hi to your mom on behalf of all of us.
     
    #141     Oct 15, 2023
    vanzandt, SunTrader and taowave like this.
  2. schizo

    schizo

    #142     Oct 15, 2023
    taowave likes this.
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    No, it is not implying that at all. How the fuck you are reading that into what Investopedia wrote as you quoted it is beyond me. You're looking for something that isn't there, in the desperate need to somehow bolster your precept.
     
    #143     Oct 15, 2023
    rb7 likes this.
  4. destriero

    destriero

    #144     Oct 15, 2023
    wxytrader likes this.
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Actually ... not.
     
    #145     Oct 15, 2023
  6. You are completely missing the point of the entire topic...and nobody is saying that....and only the people who are suffering from traders fallacy are mixing up percentages with probability. That's actually the fallacy.
     
    #146     Oct 15, 2023
  7. Well then what's the point of the article? Your portfolio's ability to recover is completely unaffected by the entire scenario they are referencing.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2023
    #147     Oct 15, 2023
  8. taowave

    taowave

    First off,its clear that you are not a trader. You havent presented one argument backed by simulations,stats or common sense.Below is your quote.

    Prove to us that ""it happens all the time? Define Easily??What percent EASILY retrace.? And why leave out half the equation?? What percent of the time does the stock that has fallen 50% keep on falling? Is buying a stock off 50% from its highs a good buy with a 100 percent profit target?? Is it a winning or losing strategy????

    And how do you know that a stock that has fallen 50% wont fall another 50%????

    Did you run a backtest???? I did...

    If that wasnt enough,your reading comprehension is on par with your "research"..

    Are you lumping in a Momo approach to trading with Deep Value DCF approach??

    Are you saying a day trader/short term trader should have the same "investing style"/money management as a Dollar cost Average Investor??

    Its a mathematical fact that a 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain to beak even..no more no less...

    As its clear you dont trade,what would you advise the trader who employs 2-1 plus leverage???

    Whats more likely,a stock doubling after going down 50% from its 1 year high,or going down another 50%?? Ill throw you the survivorship bone...

    I ran it on the Russel 3000.....Lets hear it






    KEY TAKEAWAYS
    • Always think in terms of future potential—you can't do anything about the past, so don't depend on it.
    • A selling strategy that's successful for one person might not work for somebody else.
    • Once we own something, we tend to let emotions such as greed or fear get in the way of good judgment.
    • It's important to think critically about selling; know your investing style and use that strategy to stay disciplined, keeping your emotions out of the market.
    • A 50% drop means the position will need to gain 100% to return to the original amount.



     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2023
    #148     Oct 15, 2023
    rb7 likes this.

  9. You are completely missing the point of what a traders fallacy is referring to.
     
    #149     Oct 15, 2023
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    You keep using that expression incorrectly. It is Gamblers or Monte Carlo Fallacy.

    Which has nothing to do with reversing an established trend.

    No wonder you are doing binaries. You only need to get the direction right. Math, simple math, is obviously not your strength.

    Done with this rinse repeat trying to get thru a thick skull, and I don't mean for the night.
     
    #150     Oct 15, 2023
    rb7 likes this.